TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Toronto Blue Jaysof Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,462
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,434

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,462 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays79c5,669$4,482 inWon+$1,187.3411,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Boston Red Sox21c4,248$892 inLost-$892.0823538.3%90 W · 145 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox2c1,556$35 inLost-$34.6212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Boston Red Sox21c1,276$268 inLost-$268.038633.7%29 W · 57 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-17.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays80c1,005$799 inWon+$205.466,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd60…396cbacked Boston Red Sox20c555$111 inLost-$11119546.2%90 W · 105 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ce2…d913backed Boston Red Sox20c477.75$95 inLost-$95.420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f3d…95b1backed Boston Red Sox19c78.95$15 inLost-$1528639.2%112 W · 174 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe997…f92ebacked Toronto Blue Jays80c30.86$25 inWon+$6.179153.8%49 W · 42 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4eef…5275backed Toronto Blue Jays79c25.34$20 inWon+$5.322572%18 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick78cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40d6…9892backed Toronto Blue Jays80c16.66$13 inWon+$3.3334451.5%177 W · 167 L-8.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.