MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b6b58d6916bbd3d5b59c769a80d2a1e9fafe09d52d3821618cab1c5e9a96789
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f0c…7ca5backed Under | 65c | 25,826$16,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,038.95 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -7.9wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 35c | 14,815$5,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,223.06 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…ce9bbacked Under | 50c | 10,743$5,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,371.63 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 6,932$3,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,465.44 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 50c | 4,067$2,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,026.03 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 35c | 2,100$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 34c | 2,038$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.34 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 35c | 1,971$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.68 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 1,548$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.61 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 35c | 1,200$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Over | 47c | 1,179$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.29 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 1,046$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.63 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 13c | 986.43$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.06 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…023abacked Under | 74c | 540.54$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.54 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Under | 56c | 446.43$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.43 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 27c | 254$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.76 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Over | 29c | 250$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 24c | 177.19$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 46c | 128.19$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.97 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 28c | 127.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 53c | 97.06$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Over | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Under | 54c | 76.97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.41 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 46c | 69.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 53c | 58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Over | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 37c | 57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Over | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Over | 37c | 49.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…37f1backed Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b07…5f54backed Over | 52c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Over | 41c | 42.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cf…6659backed Over | 50c | 38.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Over | 41c | 35.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 515 | 45.2%233 W · 282 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371b…0925backed Under | 61c | 24.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 62cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf388…5c83backed Over | 52c | 23.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae02…7ed0backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f4…918fbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Under | 58c | 18.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 192 | 46.9%90 W · 102 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfb…f1b7backed Under | 79c | 18.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 319 | 63%201 W · 118 L | +27.5wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…2c72backed Under | 65c | 15.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5this page
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red SoxToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.