MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7cb044549ae973a4d980ff7e1268c14c830b1170408970efdfbdfcf8330c1f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 9c | 3,374$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.94 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 2,936$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.21 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 1,451$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.74 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 1,065$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.91 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 73c | 951.56$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.13 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Boston Red Sox | 7c | 831.13$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…6fe2backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 577.54$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Boston Red Sox | 37c | 312$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.44 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…0e56backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 271.4$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.7 | 208 | 48.6%101 W · 107 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 258.98$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.82 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 199$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.63 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Boston Red Sox | 22c | 146.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Boston Red Sox | 20c | 126.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 109.81$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 76c | 106.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…23ffbacked Boston Red Sox | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 394 | 40.9%161 W · 233 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 89.85$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 30c | 76.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 73.49$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Boston Red Sox | 17c | 73.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Toronto Blue Jays | 72c | 68.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Boston Red Sox | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Boston Red Sox | 21c | 56.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 51.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 51.17$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 45.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Boston Red Sox | 36c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 34.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Boston Red Sox | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f3…c784backed Toronto Blue Jays | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 28.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bd…b053backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 27.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 16.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Toronto Blue Jays | 80c | 15.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf63a…eec2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 76c | 15.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red SoxToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.