MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc0823c1c314a1e5e99a21577fb9f916c607f8ea4146a591716af4f1fa55a8e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,720
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,720 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 42c | 1,533$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.81 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 54c | 669.19$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.95 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 63c | 616.18$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.95 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 34c | 568.16$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.06 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…2874backed Over | 58c | 431.03$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 61c | 364.77$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.29 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb90…2bd9backed Under | 38c | 306.29$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 62c | 223.62$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.13 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa947…1859backed Under | 39c | 205.13$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.13 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 39c | 205$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 61c | 200$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.2 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 42c | 199.43$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.72 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 58c | 174.32$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.11 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…e4a7backed Under | 39c | 128.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.41 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c47…e1cbbacked Under | 74c | 127$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 37c | 119.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.59 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 58c | 118$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.09 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 58c | 116.47$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.55 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 64c | 103.25$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.08 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Under | 43c | 102.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 314 | 49.4%155 W · 159 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 58c | 92.21$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 64c | 73.35$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 33c | 57.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 65c | 53.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 51c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 41c | 46.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 59c | 37.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 63c | 35.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Under | 42c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Over | 60c | 34.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -13.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…5c74backed Under | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Over | 63c | 22.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 62c | 20.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…3503backed Over | 67c | 16.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red SoxToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.