MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf509eeaf1e7f873284e9d0b565224395146ad00ab42bd3a50996aab571e972c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Toronto Blue Jays | 26c | 538.58$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.03 | 657 | 49.2%323 W · 334 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 21c | 508.79$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.3 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Boston Red Sox | 69c | 447.47$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.04 | 878 | 50.5%443 W · 435 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Boston Red Sox | 74c | 407.34$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.91 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 394$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.41 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd60f…ba25backed Toronto Blue Jays | 29c | 338.45$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 326.09$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Boston Red Sox | 53c | 279.67$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.44 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 237.8$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.67 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Boston Red Sox | 71c | 202.26$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.66 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Boston Red Sox | 61c | 173.79$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.93 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 169.7$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.66 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 164.59$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 117.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4232…d505backed Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 102.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 92.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 91.35$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 86.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 84.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…0f76backed Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 83.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Boston Red Sox | 74c | 80.24$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 61.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 53.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 881 | 53.7%473 W · 408 L | +40.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Boston Red Sox | 72c | 49.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Boston Red Sox | 74c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Boston Red Sox | 76c | 41.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 34.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Boston Red Sox | 71c | 28.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 28.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Boston Red Sox | 71c | 24.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red SoxToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.