TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Lincoln: Mitchell Krueger vs Alex Martinez

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Mitchell Kruegerof Mitchell Krueger, Alex Martinez
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$53,363
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$60,998

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,363 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc3c3…eec8backed Mitchell Krueger61c12,500$7,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,874.9939249.7%195 W · 197 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Alex Martinez12c4,113$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.979,03836.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L-196.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Alex Martinez41c3,663$1,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,501.8317452.9%92 W · 82 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Alex Martinez40c3,330$1,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3344,34152.3%2,271 W · 2,070 L+63.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Alex Martinez38c2,034$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.43,31948.4%1,605 W · 1,714 L-52.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Alex Martinez36c1,764$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.393,72642.4%1,580 W · 2,146 L-48.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Mitchell Krueger69c1,692$1,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.648,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked Alex Martinez37c1,136$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.812,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Mitchell Krueger67c1,004$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.628,70242.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L-165.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Alex Martinez39c897.44$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35033137.2%123 W · 208 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-2.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Alex Martinez39c769.23$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005,32528.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L-21.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81a9…df08backed Alex Martinez42c750$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31526546.4%123 W · 142 L-1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9da9…453fbacked Alex Martinez29c748.92$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2208452.4%44 W · 40 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee4f…daa3backed Alex Martinez15c666.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020332.5%66 W · 137 L-12.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc367…a0b4backed Alex Martinez12c631.92$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.8347234.7%164 W · 308 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Alex Martinez42c614.86$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.11,12551.1%575 W · 550 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Alex Martinez39c600$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2347,10739.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L-17.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Alex Martinez39c501.17$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.0486050.1%431 W · 429 L+22.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Mitchell Krueger74c482.93$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.043,15557.2%1,806 W · 1,349 L+176.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed Alex Martinez15c400$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6067131.3%210 W · 461 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c04…a593backed Alex Martinez14c357.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5042930.5%131 W · 298 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2002…a75ebacked Alex Martinez32c299.18$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.6433043.9%145 W · 185 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Mitchell Krueger65c294.12$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.526,65250.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L+263.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d96…7c16backed Alex Martinez39c281.39$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.748045%36 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8100…1d33backed Mitchell Krueger77c259.74$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.7411765%76 W · 41 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f34…ed6abacked Alex Martinez15c255.45$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1439751.4%204 W · 193 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a80…d472backed Mitchell Krueger58c241.34$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.341,19852.4%628 W · 570 L+28.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Alex Martinez8c203.36$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.262,06535.2%727 W · 1,338 L-52.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Alex Martinez39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9663…5b70backed Mitchell Krueger59c173.63$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.1986647.9%415 W · 451 L+32.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Alex Martinez11c164.16$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.65,42256.3%3,054 W · 2,368 L+231.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Mitchell Krueger60c156.38$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.552,52138.4%969 W · 1,552 L+93.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cdd…db30backed Alex Martinez16c156.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2519424.2%47 W · 147 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0467…fb2ebacked Alex Martinez40c149.35$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7413025.4%33 W · 97 L-13.6wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-28%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x747f…f2d7backed Alex Martinez39c149.02$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1290152.3%471 W · 430 L-2.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b6b…ec86backed Alex Martinez17c137.18$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.321,06231.8%338 W · 724 L-27.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Alex Martinez13c125.31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.451,47643.8%647 W · 829 L-26.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-24.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf830…0454backed Mitchell Krueger80c123.94$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.798160.5%49 W · 32 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Mitchell Krueger61c115.26$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.952,27542.7%972 W · 1,303 L+33.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fc…b543backed Mitchell Krueger79c105.99$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9824546.9%115 W · 130 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddf5…aaa3backed Alex Martinez39c102.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4069253.3%369 W · 323 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Mitchell Krueger68c102.25$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2889741.7%374 W · 523 L-9.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb72…6532backed Mitchell Krueger60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404158.5%24 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick60cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Alex Martinez41c95.24$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.051,47535.2%519 W · 956 L-14.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc19…31c4backed Alex Martinez39c85$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4932546.2%150 W · 175 L+13.3wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ce0…9d0bbacked Mitchell Krueger73c81.94$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9424159.3%143 W · 98 L-0.7wins0.00per pick60cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5940…94c8backed Alex Martinez15c80.68$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.427930.4%24 W · 55 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-42.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed Mitchell Krueger61c80$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2548245.6%220 W · 262 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x186a…559dbacked Mitchell Krueger63c79.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4444952.8%237 W · 212 L+1.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f1d…2fb6backed Alex Martinez37c74.44$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.541,58042.3%668 W · 912 L+18.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Mitchell Krueger61c73.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.861,26944.8%568 W · 701 L-5.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8806…d9f1backed Alex Martinez25c72$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1816726.3%44 W · 123 L-18.9wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-31.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2ed3…274cbacked Alex Martinez34c65.35$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2279047.5%375 W · 415 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd96…11a3backed Mitchell Krueger60c64.3$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.722,27458%1,318 W · 956 L-10.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a7…206cbacked Alex Martinez40c60$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.785637.7%323 W · 533 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e0b…1435backed Alex Martinez33c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9539035.9%140 W · 250 L-61.1wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-43.1%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0xd1fc…47eebacked Alex Martinez20c56.53$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.24753.2%25 W · 22 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-16.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Mitchell Krueger60c56$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.41,22953.1%653 W · 576 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+0.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9bbe…f8d9backed Alex Martinez39c54$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0610233.3%34 W · 68 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Alex Martinez39c53.54$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8850340%201 W · 302 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Alex Martinez39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.574438.7%288 W · 456 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x323e…1ddabacked Alex Martinez39c49.21$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.363537.6%239 W · 396 L+20.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Mitchell Krueger59c48.74$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.943,98745.5%1,816 W · 2,171 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x237f…e76ebacked Mitchell Krueger59c48$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6830055%165 W · 135 L+0.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x118d…d432backed Alex Martinez44c46.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.393458.8%20 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf970…f7f6backed Alex Martinez44c45.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.232,52836.2%914 W · 1,614 L-26.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9271…a28abacked Alex Martinez42c44$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4855641.2%229 W · 327 L-2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbdbe…e45bbacked Alex Martinez40c39.78$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9133048.8%161 W · 169 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Mitchell Krueger60c39.36$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7473048.8%356 W · 374 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5331…3672backed Alex Martinez41c36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7631347.6%149 W · 164 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5630…7574backed Alex Martinez31c34.27$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4614347.6%68 W · 75 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf504…0111backed Mitchell Krueger76c31.4$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.671,12056.5%633 W · 487 L+52.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Mitchell Krueger79c31.16$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.54,76049.6%2,361 W · 2,399 L+176.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Alex Martinez40c31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.46,79236.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L-98.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Mitchell Krueger67c29.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.82,86849.5%1,419 W · 1,449 L+23.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Mitchell Krueger62c27.29$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.372,56163%1,613 W · 948 L-10.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Mitchell Krueger67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5592352.5%485 W · 438 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42a1…a8e9backed Mitchell Krueger68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.439451.3%202 W · 192 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Mitchell Krueger68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.473951.7%382 W · 357 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc62f…1781backed Mitchell Krueger60c17.12$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8526664.7%172 W · 94 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee84…becbbacked Mitchell Krueger72c16.67$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6723942.7%102 W · 137 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.