Stocks · resolved market
Will Palantir dip to $141 in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41692fb1725503b5f1ac52c7ed0bc2053378e0a5b5aea3aae0981dbd0d42535d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,401$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e9…77c8backed Yes | 11c | 380.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 8c | 321.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…68d9backed Yes | 11c | 309.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e6…6fcbbacked Yes | 22c | 200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -5.8wins | -0.36per pick | 42cpaid | -88%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7dff…1f35backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 12c | 190.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…fa4dbacked Yes | 8c | 185.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…cda1backed Yes | 18c | 155$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 8c | 137.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd4…d37abacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f82…5716backed Yes | 16c | 123.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc28b…3a2abacked Yes | 10c | 100.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 14c | 93.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 98 | 35.7%35 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…7d72backed Yes | 18c | 92.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed Yes | 17c | 92.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c08…3ad5backed Yes | 35c | 74.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99b1…e4efbacked Yes | 20c | 67.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 63c | 64.96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…c472backed Yes | 19c | 52.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7016…3ad0backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Palantir dip to $141 in November?this page
- Will Palantir dip to $150 in Nov 25-28?No won
- Will Palantir dip to $156 in November?Yes won
- Will Palantir dip to $168 in November?Yes won
- Will Palantir dip to $177 in November?Yes won
- Will Palantir dip to $186 in November?Yes won
- Will Palantir dip to $192 in November?Yes won
- Will Palantir dip to $198 in November?Yes won
- Will Palantir reach $170 in Nov 25-28?No won
- Will Palantir reach $190 in Nov 25-28?No won
- Will Palantir reach $204 in November?Yes won
- Will Palantir reach $210 in November?No won
- Will Palantir reach $216 in November?No won
- Will Palantir reach $237 in November?No won
- Will Palantir reach $264 in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.