Stocks · resolved market
Will Palantir reach $210 in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43ba38791cd3ccc546b36c948407b1588bb62662aab44172cf5fd0ad1ff9416c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 1c | 15,388$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.42 | 150 | 5.3%8 W · 142 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 3cpaid | +225.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 774.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed No | 77c | 637.58$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.83 | 232 | 53.4%124 W · 108 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cc…449bbacked Yes | 14c | 505.53$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 16c | 284.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd423…9c16backed No | 12c | 237$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.42 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No | 74c | 225.93$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.33 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 197.18$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 52c | 105.59$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.41 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 42c | 105.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…653fbacked No | 72c | 72.38$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 58cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 32c | 68.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.61 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -26.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 46c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd365…4568backed Yes | 51c | 29.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…4d9dbacked No | 57c | 26.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Palantir reach $210 in November?this page
- Will Palantir dip to $141 in November?No won
- Will Palantir dip to $150 in Nov 25-28?No won
- Will Palantir dip to $156 in November?Yes won
- Will Palantir dip to $168 in November?Yes won
- Will Palantir dip to $177 in November?Yes won
- Will Palantir dip to $186 in November?Yes won
- Will Palantir dip to $192 in November?Yes won
- Will Palantir dip to $198 in November?Yes won
- Will Palantir reach $170 in Nov 25-28?No won
- Will Palantir reach $190 in Nov 25-28?No won
- Will Palantir reach $204 in November?Yes won
- Will Palantir reach $216 in November?No won
- Will Palantir reach $237 in November?No won
- Will Palantir reach $264 in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.