Stocks · resolved market
Will Palantir dip to $168 in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5ad02da53aaa498e502ac5c34079530e6b332ae6db2e2ef7177fa83e57f34ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 58c | 1,675$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.44 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 1,048$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 3cpaid | +225.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 59c | 377.09$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.25 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -26.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 46c | 340.42$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.28 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 8c | 265.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed No | 14c | 230.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 232 | 53.4%124 W · 108 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…75f2backed Yes | 49c | 142.95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 55c | 139.98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 37c | 130$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 46c | 123.94$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.55 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed No | 57c | 95.84$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…1687backed Yes | 32c | 55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +115.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 30c | 52.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…f16abacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…2605backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf785…e366backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc971…7bb2backed Yes | 75c | 16.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Palantir dip to $168 in November?this page
- Will Palantir dip to $141 in November?No won
- Will Palantir dip to $150 in Nov 25-28?No won
- Will Palantir dip to $156 in November?Yes won
- Will Palantir dip to $177 in November?Yes won
- Will Palantir dip to $186 in November?Yes won
- Will Palantir dip to $192 in November?Yes won
- Will Palantir dip to $198 in November?Yes won
- Will Palantir reach $170 in Nov 25-28?No won
- Will Palantir reach $190 in Nov 25-28?No won
- Will Palantir reach $204 in November?Yes won
- Will Palantir reach $210 in November?No won
- Will Palantir reach $216 in November?No won
- Will Palantir reach $237 in November?No won
- Will Palantir reach $264 in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.