Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x416e42ada1fb1940b64703bb0ed916ab1b9e00ea47a314f4e1e208ab8c505eab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,992
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,992 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ec3…d814backed Yes | 79c | 357.62$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.43 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 353.38$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.06 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked No | 27c | 324.83$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 52c | 294.94$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.5 | 265 | 56.2%149 W · 116 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 72c | 254.97$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.86 | 251 | 46.6%117 W · 134 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 37c | 197.42$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 47c | 188.18$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.74 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 46c | 156.23$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.87 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 35c | 152.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.47 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 35c | 152.94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 483 | 62.5%302 W · 181 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d42…5bf3backed Yes | 54c | 142.98$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.77 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 33c | 137.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 50c | 137.48$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.35 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 67c | 126.27$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 691 | 50.5%349 W · 342 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 45c | 103.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 1,472 | 34.8%512 W · 960 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 72c | 83.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 526 | 50.2%264 W · 262 L | +30.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 65c | 82.79$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 50c | 81.4$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…adafbacked Yes | 49c | 80.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 68c | 78.17$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 48c | 75.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 52c | 72.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…825ebacked Yes | 76c | 72.15$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 30c | 71.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 354 | 21.5%76 W · 278 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed No | 29c | 68.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 111 | 15.3%17 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 31c | 66.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 38c | 63.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 31c | 60.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | +32.0wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 59.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 58.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…4b96backed Yes | 31c | 56.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 21c | 56.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 1,569 | 16.3%255 W · 1,314 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 39c | 49.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 74c | 48.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 23c | 48.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 46c | 48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 205 | 48.8%100 W · 105 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 41c | 44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,477 | 58.6%865 W · 612 L | +72.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 202 | 55.4%112 W · 90 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 42c | 43.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 253 | 57.7%146 W · 107 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 46c | 42.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 29c | 41.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 69c | 41.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 218 | 58.3%127 W · 91 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 41.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 39c | 40.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 344 | 58.7%202 W · 142 L | +18.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…2262backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,835 | 61.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,032 | 31.3%949 W · 2,083 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 48c | 39.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 35c | 35.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 34c | 35.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 50c | 34.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 69c | 34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 470 | 47.2%222 W · 248 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe13b…6747backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 51c | 28.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 52c | 28.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 1,268 | 58.4%740 W · 528 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 50c | 27.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…735cbacked Yes | 54c | 26.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 148 | 39.9%59 W · 89 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 24.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 51c | 23.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 52c | 22.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 144 | 55.6%80 W · 64 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 22.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f07…7573backed Yes | 65c | 22.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb416…6788backed Yes | 75c | 21.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 189 | 52.4%99 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 265 | 57.7%153 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…c966backed No | 69c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 63c | 18.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 339 | 43.1%146 W · 193 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…e969backed Yes | 70c | 15.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.