Olympics · resolved market
Men's Round of 16 - Germany vs. France
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41830cec6232114c198fecc9d890bd65b156537be58670d0694e752d3e99cf8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Germanyof Germany, France
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $365,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $377,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $365,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa07…2125backed France | 13c | 102,210$12,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,843.15 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb859…e244backed France | 13c | 81,446$10,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,901.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed France | 12c | 20,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked France | 12c | 20,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,399.98 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked France | 6c | 12,963$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.15 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8758…01e0backed France | 13c | 10,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked France | 13c | 10,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.99 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed France | 13c | 8,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed France | 13c | 7,107$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked France | 14c | 6,700$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.2 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked France | 13c | 5,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked France | 12c | 4,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb68…a240backed France | 13c | 3,685$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.01 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a4…3117backed France | 1c | 1,976$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed France | 1c | 1,749$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked France | 13c | 1,538$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…99c0backed France | 13c | 1,531$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed France | 1c | 1,257$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…a3acbacked France | 6c | 1,200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…2394backed France | 2c | 1,200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked France | 13c | 1,111$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.43 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafce…c2f6backed France | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b64…eaf4backed France | 6c | 538.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked France | 12c | 495.44$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.45 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked France | 3c | 469.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…8b6cbacked France | 8c | 431.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65a4…c1d5backed France | 5c | 417.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba3…1aafbacked France | 13c | 169.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…a8bdbacked France | 14c | 156.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…054cbacked France | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed France | 13c | 151.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked France | 14c | 149.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…f0ccbacked France | 13c | 143.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8666…a368backed France | 13c | 139.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed France | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…a4f0backed France | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed France | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked France | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb232…8709backed France | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0d…5087backed France | 13c | 84.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.