Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x419464c0b17fc5f85d6bf620241633801113d59965dd9d0b64faa53cb4d4760a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 36c | 2,337$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500.97 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 440.06$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 61c | 436.86$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.38 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 41c | 271.68$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.93 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 27c | 267.14$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.69 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 10c | 263.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 30c | 216.06$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.79 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 67c | 192.34$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.19 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 59c | 176.67$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.56 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 23c | 171.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.28 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 169.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.37 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 152.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.87 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked No | 64c | 138.1$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.02 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 132.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 130$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.53 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 80c | 128$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.18 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 66c | 119.07$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.18 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 20c | 114.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.29 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 59c | 113.23$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.98 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 110.91$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.62 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 54c | 105$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.99 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 91.54$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.62 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 62c | 91$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 31c | 84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.77 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 59c | 65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…2d49backed No | 24c | 62.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 61.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 73c | 60.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 74c | 51.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked Yes | 73c | 49.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 25c | 47.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 22c | 46.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 26c | 44.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 44.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 29c | 43.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 51c | 43.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 60c | 41.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 60c | 41.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 58c | 40.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed No | 57c | 38.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 37.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 49c | 37.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 37.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 36.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 37c | 34.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 77c | 28.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 78c | 27.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…7980backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 55c | 24.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 48c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 61c | 22.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 61c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…58d4backed No | 75c | 21.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 72c | 20.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…b70dbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 65c | 17.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 78c | 17.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a2…2c18backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 80c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 13.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 13.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 69°F or below on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.