Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaaa39731df0ac888908f7388a9bba7c121995d1ca70d0a1fb6923c9e432c00c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 37c | 678.96$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.56 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 48c | 269$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.56 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 38c | 263.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.41 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 48c | 248.97$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.53 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 50c | 225.16$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.58 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 211.84$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.77 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 34c | 190.07$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.33 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 166.41$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 160$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…5992backed Yes | 51c | 121.94$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.59 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 112.58$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.7 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 61c | 109.07$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 44c | 98.78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 48c | 98.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 33c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 50c | 87.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked Yes | 16c | 77.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 60c | 73.35$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 47c | 69.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 56c | 60.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 24c | 59.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 28c | 53.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 53.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 50c | 51.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 51c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…890fbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 43c | 46.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 46c | 43.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 32c | 40.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…7429backed Yes | 38c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 72c | 38.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 37.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 33c | 36.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 36.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 35.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 43c | 34.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b06…7d94backed No | 54c | 34.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 54c | 33.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc245…bccbbacked Yes | 62c | 33.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 50c | 32.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 66c | 30.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 63c | 28.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked Yes | 40c | 27.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed Yes | 52c | 26.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 25.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 46c | 24.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c8…f61ebacked Yes | 80c | 24.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 52c | 23.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 63c | 23.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 63c | 23.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 49c | 22.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 57c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…16c5backed No | 63c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0253…bcadbacked Yes | 78c | 17.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 71c | 14.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfeb…a172backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 69°F or below on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.