Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x419dc0721fe484c443e32c09b83bc2e40a96d1a3beeb82786fbd7c0df51b92ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 53c | 733.32$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.29 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 61c | 541.79$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.59 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 52c | 500.77$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.78 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 50c | 494.46$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.43 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 441.8$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.99 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 50c | 400.45$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.44 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 46c | 326.41$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.62 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 63c | 275.07$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.07 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 46c | 242.83$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.33 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 216.5$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 52c | 200$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed Yes | 52c | 185.39$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.02 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 27c | 150.02$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.76 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 55c | 149.81$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.93 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 49c | 146$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.75 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 48c | 145$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.9 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 51c | 137.84$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 54c | 134.22$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.92 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 134$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 131.55$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 39c | 127$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.32 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 49c | 125$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 50c | 122.97$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.36 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 36c | 121.19$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 46c | 120.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 49c | 117.14$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cae…d2aebacked Yes | 51c | 116.67$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.39 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 49c | 114.86$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 44c | 114.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.52 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 46c | 109.32$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…96cebacked Yes | 40c | 106.53$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.98 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 42c | 106.47$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.17 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked Yes | 52c | 106.09$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.65 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 58c | 94.08$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 92.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 64c | 91.57$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 39c | 91.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 89.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.12 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ca…739abacked No | 79c | 88.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…71a6backed Yes | 53c | 88.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 28c | 85.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.47 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 52c | 83.35$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 56c | 82.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 49c | 77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 59c | 76.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 67c | 76.22$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 67c | 75.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 38c | 71.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.49 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 28c | 70.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.93 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 21c | 69.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.21 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7510…6cb0backed Yes | 51c | 68.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 44c | 67.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…0cc4backed No | 47c | 61.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 59c | 58.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf6…e15abacked Yes | 26c | 57.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 76c | 57.54$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 46c | 57.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 38c | 56.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 72c | 53.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 28c | 53.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 47c | 51.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…c224backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8976…4ea7backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b2…d3d9backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 53c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x467e…0edebacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…fc29backed Yes | 54c | 49.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 74c | 49.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 51c | 48.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 47c | 47.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 64c | 47.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 51c | 46.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 57c | 45.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked Yes | 44c | 45.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 50c | 44.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 54c | 42.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 26c | 39.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 48c | 37.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 61c | 34.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 41c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed No | 74c | 32.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed No | 44c | 30.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 50c | 30.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 45c | 29.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 50c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 47c | 28.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7a…7be5backed No | 49c | 26.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 41c | 26.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 52c | 25.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 45c | 24.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.