TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,484
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,388

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,484 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd36…a832backed Yes53c733.32$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.2965043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked Yes61c541.79$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.5942820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes52c500.77$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.7831943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes50c494.46$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.431,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No50c441.8$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.995,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf33c…488cbacked Yes50c400.45$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.4410244.1%45 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No46c326.41$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.628,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9819…fe16backed Yes63c275.07$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.077949.4%39 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes46c242.83$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.338,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No48c216.5$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.2812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes52c200$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9716046.3%74 W · 86 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc51…b9e8backed Yes52c185.39$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.0210134.7%35 W · 66 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes27c150.02$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.762,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes55c149.81$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.9395933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No49c146$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.754,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes48c145$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.911343.4%49 W · 64 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes51c137.84$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.949744.3%43 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No54c134.22$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.922,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No55c134$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.443,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No49c131.55$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.994,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcca3…7450backed Yes39c127$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.3242643.2%184 W · 242 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No49c125$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.252,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No50c122.97$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.3688973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No36c121.19$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.432,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No46c120.3$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.987,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No49c117.14$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cae…d2aebacked Yes51c116.67$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.391233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No49c114.86$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.433,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x784a…06c3backed Yes44c114.52$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.5234050.6%172 W · 168 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbea5…2cf0backed No46c109.32$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5225358.9%149 W · 104 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e97…96cebacked Yes40c106.53$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.988749.4%43 W · 44 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes42c106.47$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.171,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc426…ac6ebacked Yes52c106.09$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.6514646.6%68 W · 78 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No58c94.08$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.951,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes53c92.66$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.956,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No64c91.57$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.931,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes39c91.41$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.162,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes43c89.85$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.125,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4ca…739abacked No79c88.76$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702657.7%15 W · 11 L-3.9wins-0.15per pick73cpaid-19.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa6dc…71a6backed Yes53c88.62$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.652416.7%4 W · 20 L-6.6wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-53.7%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes28c85.92$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.474,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes52c83.35$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.2446240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No56c82.22$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.332,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No49c77$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.823,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed No59c76.3$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0151631.6%163 W · 353 L-29.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No67c76.22$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.181,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No67c75.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.311,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes38c71.88$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.4981234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc941…a0e8backed Yes28c70.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.9320838%79 W · 129 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked Yes21c69.88$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.2190040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7510…6cb0backed Yes51c68.31$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.474141.5%17 W · 24 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No44c67.42$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes54c64.81$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8187629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a9b…0cc4backed No47c61.17$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.757634.2%26 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-30.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes51c60$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.43,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c59.98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4580050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No59c58.55$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.712,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cf6…e15abacked Yes26c57.63$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.64825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes76c57.54$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.981,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked No46c57.16$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0811731.6%37 W · 80 L-19.1wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-39.5%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No38c56.36$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.552,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No72c53.59$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.422,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked Yes28c53.04$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1448743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No47c51.08$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.94,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2424046.7%112 W · 128 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bbe…c224backed Yes49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.51241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2354547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8976…4ea7backed Yes39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.51947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3b2…d3d9backed Yes54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No53c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.393,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x467e…0edebacked No50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+14%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x13a9…fc29backed Yes54c49.9$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.952152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No74c49.4$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.551,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes51c48.01$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.625,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31af…5c86backed Yes47c47.34$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.0931836.8%117 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7581…2ca4backed Yes64c47.21$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2120833.2%69 W · 139 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No51c46.12$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5399961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No57c45.36$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9180957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec0a…71dabacked Yes44c45.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3311343.4%49 W · 64 L-6.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes50c44.91$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.397,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed Yes54c42.54$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.571,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6371…fc91backed Yes26c39.64$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.479836.7%36 W · 62 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes48c37.92$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7211729.9%35 W · 82 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes56c35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.433139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No57c35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.85,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb699…4e20backed No44c35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.421352.1%111 W · 102 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No61c34.92$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.133,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes41c33$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.461,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed No74c32.53$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0249547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89cc…9e01backed No44c30.8$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.559752.6%51 W · 46 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e16…7f14backed No50c30.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0622064.5%142 W · 78 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.54,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No52c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.671464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed No45c29.08$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9748919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No50c29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5443563.9%278 W · 157 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes47c28.45$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c7a…7be5backed No49c26.78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.123545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No41c26.71$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.042,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea7…7450backed No52c25.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3241760.4%252 W · 165 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No45c24.76$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1491861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.