TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,082
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,172

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,082 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes44c1,101$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.584,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes36c836.13$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe57…3920backed Yes64c748.32$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.277832.1%25 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes36c742.68$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.921,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes67c712.68$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.972,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…9044backed No53c562.93$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.468920.2%18 W · 71 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cd2…c304backed No47c541.87$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.316038.8%62 W · 98 L+18.0wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+123.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No59c441.8$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.875,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No59c413.37$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.4412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes33c385.81$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.9410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9819…fe16backed Yes62c381.45$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2387949.4%39 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes57c348.97$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.365749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes33c321.51$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.488,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb3a…d3e3backed No65c303.09$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.095786%49 W · 8 L+11.2wins+0.20per pick66cpaid+33.5%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked Yes58c270.46$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.0742820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No66c270.46$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.688,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed No45c262.42$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.770741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No50c227.58$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.333,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2cae…d2aebacked Yes64c224.08$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.251233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e97…96cebacked Yes62c220.99$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.458749.4%43 W · 44 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8b3…9bc4backed Yes30c203.09$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.551650%8 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa46e…fec5backed Yes75c189.04$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.152040%8 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x006e…59dbbacked No56c180.18$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.42366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+124.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes26c178.47$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.281,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No68c170.49$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.189,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No77c160.58$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.593,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No25c150.11$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.894,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes47c150$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.595933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes67c148.84$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10031943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes27c147.46$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.121,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes41c144.99$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9911343.4%49 W · 64 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb427…4c62backed Yes25c141.21$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5322350.7%113 W · 110 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No68c141$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.913,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes52c123$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.062,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No42c119.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.6348523.7%115 W · 370 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes47c119$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.391,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed Yes51c116.38$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3584930.6%260 W · 589 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes52c111.94$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.851,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No68c110.68$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.972,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No77c108.68$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6592678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaafc…ec67backed Yes59c105.99$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9644757.3%256 W · 191 L+53.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+24%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No64c104$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.284,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No64c102$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.723,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No72c97.99$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.131,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No54c94.12$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.221,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes43c88.52$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.186,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No64c87.58$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6487629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No55c85.63$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.342,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No74c83.54$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.544,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86bd…2c98backed No62c80.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4415131.1%47 W · 104 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef49…d27bbacked Yes37c79.69$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1121651.9%112 W · 104 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No48c79.12$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.327,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No54c78.15$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.082,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No53c77.13$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.312,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No34c76.22$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.321,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No64c75.63$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.444,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No62c75$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.51,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No45c74.83$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.1712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xc941…a0e8backed No55c73$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.9120838%79 W · 129 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No67c72.08$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.819,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No73c71.99$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.743,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40d0…87b5backed Yes28c71.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-44.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes64c70.98$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6418337.7%69 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No33c69.67$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.552,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed No64c68$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4840352.4%211 W · 192 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes57c66.96$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.942,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4ca…f855backed Yes38c65.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13a9…fc29backed No63c65$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.052152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No40c65$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.1580957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x784a…06c3backed Yes77c64.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5034050.6%172 W · 168 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes33c64.53$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5220438.7%79 W · 125 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7581…2ca4backed No47c63.78$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7820833.2%69 W · 139 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes35c63.57$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.511731.6%37 W · 80 L-19.1wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-39.5%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes37c62.8$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9299949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes24c61.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.797,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65ce…6ff8backed No69c61.22$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9819345.6%88 W · 105 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No59c60.99$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.784,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf707…e8cebacked No65c60$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215832.8%19 W · 39 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes39c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.43,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No42c59.73$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.61,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes62c58.92$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.775350.9%27 W · 26 L-5.5wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-19.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No54c57$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.495,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes54c55.56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3046240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae42…9235backed Yes57c52.89$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301631.3%5 W · 11 L-4.0wins-0.25per pick56cpaid-55.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x65e6…3289backed Yes46c52.48$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.212927.6%8 W · 21 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes66c51$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4257747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes37c50.01$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.516046.3%74 W · 86 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0294…76a0backed No64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1815246.1%70 W · 82 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2892028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7320…0a3fbacked No64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1816148.4%78 W · 83 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4af9…3144backed No64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1821950.7%111 W · 108 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9625…ec8ebacked No62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199145.1%41 W · 50 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7510…6cb0backed Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.54141.5%17 W · 24 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x989e…aa30backed No64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1814745.6%67 W · 80 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x060c…48f4backed Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.51533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.33,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21d3…8c5fbacked No64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1813351.1%68 W · 65 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb31a…8817backed No64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1818254.4%99 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x326c…ef55backed No64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1815345.1%69 W · 84 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.