MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Baltimore Orioles
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41f6eba0c90ecf1d3f8682a18ef9b6ef31bfb400fdc4a8bde135a5dc528cb71f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Cincinnati Reds, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,272
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Baltimore Orioles | 0c | 3,670$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 1,801$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.15 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Cincinnati Reds | 34c | 1,766$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,159.45 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 1,641$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.24 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 1,500$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Cincinnati Reds | 42c | 1,169$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.05 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…70adbacked Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 1,145$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.51 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 1,125$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.27 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Cincinnati Reds | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 838.54$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.5 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Cincinnati Reds | 34c | 627.29$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.01 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 555.07$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.37 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Cincinnati Reds | 34c | 482.5$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.45 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 425.03$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.27 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 378.79$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 316$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.76 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 300$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 42c | 238.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.24 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4074…7d83backed Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cincinnati Reds | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Cincinnati Reds | 42c | 76.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 36c | 63.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…cb52backed Cincinnati Reds | 36c | 55.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x545b…b64ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 22.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 19.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.