CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x424616cece6fde0c54e6dba8b3022455ce880c607603d85f50fd63276e88a7b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spiritof Spirit, G2
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,922 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7645…3117backed G2 | 58c | 3,397$1,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,970.27 | 720 | 46.1%332 W · 388 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdca…66ebbacked Spirit | 42c | 2,382$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,381.28 | 284 | 43.7%124 W · 160 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5978…aec4backed Spirit | 45c | 1,167$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.9 | 229 | 38%87 W · 142 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked G2 | 48c | 1,084$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.62 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked G2 | 55c | 999$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.45 | 983 | 52.4%515 W · 468 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54ea…f74abacked Spirit | 42c | 608.62$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353 | 253 | 44.3%112 W · 141 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…0da4backed Spirit | 45c | 558.95$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.95 | 339 | 60.8%206 W · 133 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked G2 | 58c | 539.67$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.01 | 1,146 | 49.4%566 W · 580 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x423f…eedcbacked G2 | 63c | 445.99$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.19 | 406 | 55.7%226 W · 180 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ec…a0eebacked Spirit | 32c | 411$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x766c…bb56backed G2 | 64c | 408.73$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860e…a06dbacked Spirit | 51c | 343.14$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.14 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ad…683fbacked G2 | 60c | 334.03$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.26 | 355 | 50.1%178 W · 177 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4533…05a8backed Spirit | 32c | 312$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b5…02d1backed Spirit | 34c | 310$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4907…3c75backed G2 | 66c | 301$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…5695backed G2 | 68c | 294$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e55…be6fbacked Spirit | 57c | 284.21$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.21 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40a2…19c9backed Spirit | 48c | 268$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.36 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x626f…cdfabacked Spirit | 42c | 257.14$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.93 | 319 | 33.5%107 W · 212 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked Spirit | 77c | 255$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.71 | 353 | 42.8%151 W · 202 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd68c…025abacked Spirit | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa738…4fc8backed G2 | 68c | 247$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Spirit | 41c | 222.03$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131 | 248 | 46.8%116 W · 132 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdd…1b11backed Spirit | 38c | 221.89$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.01 | 220 | 45.5%100 W · 120 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1021…f204backed G2 | 66c | 214$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee4b…43dcbacked Spirit | 40c | 210.33$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.2 | 380 | 51.3%195 W · 185 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc52d…8abfbacked Spirit | 34c | 205$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Spirit | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 1,310 | 53.7%703 W · 607 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddd3…dba6backed Spirit | 38c | 193.22$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.4 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa552…0c03backed G2 | 68c | 182$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Spirit | 44c | 172.94$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.8 | 1,676 | 51.1%857 W · 819 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e33…e9c5backed G2 | 65c | 172$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked G2 | 61c | 170.48$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.51 | 1,723 | 46.8%807 W · 916 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed G2 | 60c | 166.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 692 | 53.6%371 W · 321 L | -23.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89eb…cff9backed Spirit | 42c | 164.29$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.29 | 364 | 50.3%183 W · 181 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Spirit | 39c | 159.03$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.01 | 463 | 49.9%231 W · 232 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Spirit | 32c | 155.59$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.15 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e7…884cbacked G2 | 68c | 155.59$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked G2 | 53c | 149.84$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.41 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c67…e40ebacked Spirit | 33c | 139.71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.61 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf16…65a6backed Spirit | 42c | 120.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.68 | 235 | 57.4%135 W · 100 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Spirit | 32c | 112.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…32f0backed Spirit | 42c | 107.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.14 | 182 | 39%71 W · 111 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…4c69backed Spirit | 40c | 102.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4dd…4f27backed G2 | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 509 | 47%239 W · 270 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed Spirit | 50c | 99.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 969 | 45.6%442 W · 527 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7d…cd86backed Spirit | 35c | 92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 37cpaid | +174.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed G2 | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 144 | 39.6%57 W · 87 L | -11.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…c4adbacked G2 | 61c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4bd…23d4backed Spirit | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed G2 | 61c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed G2 | 62c | 69.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Spirit | 36c | 64.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 317 | 35.6%113 W · 204 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b8…d47dbacked Spirit | 48c | 62.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 608 | 57.2%348 W · 260 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…0924backed Spirit | 42c | 56.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 428 | 45.6%195 W · 233 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed G2 | 52c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 2,474 | 24.7%611 W · 1,863 L | -316.9wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x93e3…e590backed G2 | 52c | 52.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4863…dfa4backed Spirit | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 151 | 51%77 W · 74 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Spirit | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 347 | 42.9%149 W · 198 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b2…0497backed Spirit | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed4…f891backed Spirit | 35c | 42.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed G2 | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 527 | 55.8%294 W · 233 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Spirit | 39c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 826 | 46.2%382 W · 444 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa391…dd32backed Spirit | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed G2 | 76c | 35.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 76cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd99…c06cbacked Spirit | 41c | 34.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Spirit | 38c | 33.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 239 | 52.3%125 W · 114 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed G2 | 59c | 31.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 456 | 39.3%179 W · 277 L | -29.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe825…39b7backed G2 | 52c | 30.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfda1…454fbacked G2 | 52c | 30.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29aa…e4eabacked G2 | 52c | 30.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…8a52backed G2 | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Spirit | 40c | 25.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed G2 | 56c | 21.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…aa37backed G2 | 52c | 20.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…ba10backed G2 | 52c | 20.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…7593backed G2 | 52c | 20.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e7…80d0backed G2 | 52c | 20.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…7409backed Spirit | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda7c…0316backed Spirit | 77c | 16.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2Spirit won
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 WinnerSpirit won
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 WinnerSpirit won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.