Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x425310018669a11a5fd5bb7482e7aa47f1dd352ec7938e3879fd17185ae4f7fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Virtus.proof Nigma Galaxy, Virtus.pro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Virtus.pro | 59c | 14,516$8,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,010.71 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd537…0f7cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 48c | 7,815$3,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,749.57 | 204 | 52.9%108 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9024…a444backed Nigma Galaxy | 2c | 4,700$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ab…a8b6backed Nigma Galaxy | 37c | 2,000$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe375…dadfbacked Virtus.pro | 66c | 1,836$1,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.3 | 129 | 48.1%62 W · 67 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e06…5a9bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 35c | 1,400$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.75 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Nigma Galaxy | 41c | 1,215$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.78 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Nigma Galaxy | 35c | 1,094$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.63 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 39c | 1,020$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.6 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Nigma Galaxy | 34c | 1,012$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.99 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1425backed Virtus.pro | 60c | 934.27$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.71 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Virtus.pro | 60c | 924.18$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.65 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Nigma Galaxy | 5c | 700$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 61 | 3.3%2 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -61%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Nigma Galaxy | 11c | 635$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.15 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nigma Galaxy | 33c | 552$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.36 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Nigma Galaxy | 38c | 550.32$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.62 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Nigma Galaxy | 40c | 450$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Nigma Galaxy | 11c | 318.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 87 | 9.2%8 W · 79 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd795…6fcdbacked Nigma Galaxy | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Virtus.pro | 73c | 243.67$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Virtus.pro | 53c | 202.31$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.01 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Nigma Galaxy | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Nigma Galaxy | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13c6…ff7dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2a…6bfebacked Nigma Galaxy | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 33c | 136.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 225 | 38.7%87 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Nigma Galaxy | 45c | 135$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Nigma Galaxy | 40c | 134.27$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.71 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed Virtus.pro | 60c | 100.14$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558c…ca77backed Virtus.pro | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…4c5abacked Virtus.pro | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 94 | 78.7%74 W · 20 L | +13.0wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8307…ad90backed Nigma Galaxy | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8d…9fb0backed Nigma Galaxy | 29c | 90$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Virtus.pro | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | -12.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…922ebacked Virtus.pro | 61c | 54.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdff…265ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1af1…7b88backed Virtus.pro | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Virtus.pro | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b94…709abacked Virtus.pro | 65c | 34.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Virtus.pro | 64c | 26.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Virtus.pro | 66c | 17.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Virtus.pro (BO3)Virtus.pro won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 WinnerVirtus.pro won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.