TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-01-23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$115,051
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$119,187

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,051 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed No71c14,934$10,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,298.793,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Yes35c10,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5005940.7%24 W · 35 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+47.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No65c9,407$6,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,278.3669851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No75c7,361$5,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,834.9975142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No65c6,638$4,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,320.81,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b9a…b04fbacked No65c5,000$3,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,749.981650%8 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Yes35c4,788$1,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,675.8517549.1%86 W · 89 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes34c2,692$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$916.4715134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes34c2,631$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.8933945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe33c…2bd1backed Yes15c2,387$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3501241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed No65c2,222$1,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.6914447.9%69 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5d0c…bcebbacked Yes35c2,208$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.655440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2af2…ec6fbacked Yes34c2,160$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7451346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a37…0d89backed Yes35c2,010$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Yes35c2,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70015847.5%75 W · 83 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes34c1,750$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59534144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No65c1,743$1,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.831,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…f37fbacked No66c1,715$1,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.14252.4%22 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed No64c1,678$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.5411056.4%62 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcbc…71c1backed No65c1,565$1,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.62560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed No67c1,437$959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.2810945.9%50 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4502…2fd8backed Yes33c1,149$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c38…de5abacked No67c1,000$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3306053.3%32 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x291b…2667backed No67c999.98$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.991154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes35c951.98$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.197639.5%30 W · 46 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes34c881$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.547722.1%17 W · 60 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x585c…f0a7backed No64c874.76$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.915923.7%14 W · 45 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick34cpaid+8.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed No65c839.6$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.869746.4%45 W · 52 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed No64c796.98$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.919831.6%31 W · 67 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7fcc…e083backed Yes30c733.3$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.992835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x714a…9dacbacked Yes32c625.69$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.13955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed No65c575.88$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.567152.1%37 W · 34 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8dee…412bbacked Yes36c552.01$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008846.6%41 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Yes34c532.08$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.449937.4%37 W · 62 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe889…d0c3backed Yes34c514.55$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.952920.7%6 W · 23 L-4.0wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-49.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x83c1…32f7backed Yes28c506.1$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.711936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-1.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No77c471$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.3578248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked No64c467.45$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.216045%72 W · 88 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked No65c447.36$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.7419446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No75c433.7$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.151,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed No65c400$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14020545.9%94 W · 111 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee5c…f2fcbacked No66c387.85$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe196…7976backed Yes21c387.61$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801010%1 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-54.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1146…b32abacked No66c382.03$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d89…61cbbacked No66c381.66$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f85…6d04backed Yes35c381.62$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac6f…c5f6backed Yes35c379.32$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked No65c378$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.317251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31fe…9be3backed Yes35c374.47$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3944…6470backed Yes36c361.78$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.246041.7%25 W · 35 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Yes15c336.4$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2453140.7%216 W · 315 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Yes36c300$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10815829.1%46 W · 112 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92f5…13e5backed Yes36c300$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6aa…3746backed Yes31c300$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945836.2%21 W · 37 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed No67c298.49$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.59451.1%48 W · 46 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb327…0fccbacked Yes34c291.18$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994136.6%15 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed Yes34c288.71$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.166645.5%30 W · 36 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed No65c279.06$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.6718746%86 W · 101 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f4e…19e9backed Yes36c277.64$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.953426.5%9 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-30.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x40ef…10ebbacked Yes28c246.57$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.272334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb6c…1bfabacked Yes36c236.11$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No64c229.03$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.4556951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9380…a275backed Yes30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x522f…1415backed No68c200$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656583.1%54 W · 11 L+7.6wins+0.12per pick71cpaid+16.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed Yes26c192.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5025352.2%132 W · 121 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84fd…2f81backed Yes35c185.71$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick30cpaid-59.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4985…28bdbacked Yes33c176.98$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4557…bf49backed Yes32c170$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2298…ac49backed Yes14c166.04$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.442231.8%7 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick17cpaid+54.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x725f…cea7backed Yes34c151.97$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.67825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-56.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes23c150.22$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.114934.9%52 W · 97 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7816…af9dbacked Yes35c143$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.05728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b2d…379dbacked Yes25c142.78$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365930.5%18 W · 41 L-5.9wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-19.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8d84…6df0backed Yes35c141.83$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.643951.3%20 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes36c139$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.049252.2%48 W · 44 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x58f4…764ebacked Yes36c138.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504643.5%20 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20ad…307dbacked Yes15c133.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205149%25 W · 26 L-6.3wins-0.12per pick61cpaid-29.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdf88…3ed6backed Yes22c130.41$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.69966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes34c127.27$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.834342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a89…196fbacked No80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe343…5c31backed Yes24c125$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305215.4%8 W · 44 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-48.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Yes34c121$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.577759.7%46 W · 31 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf56a…fe7cbacked No65c119.53$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.841250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+45%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe704…7558backed Yes34c117.65$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4017855.6%99 W · 79 L+0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa87b…968bbacked Yes15c117.14$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187825.6%20 W · 58 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-25.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed No66c106.92$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.2751136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed No64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365068%34 W · 16 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf68a…625dbacked Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356639.4%26 W · 40 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b49…69c1backed Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x79df…1661backed Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198531.8%27 W · 58 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4835…8f59backed Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345651.8%29 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x090b…2f01backed Yes37c94.59$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-42.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes35c94.29$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3334547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Yes17c93.24$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8518840.4%76 W · 112 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked No65c92.3$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.337344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed No65c92.06$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.0921450%107 W · 107 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9c8…eb24backed Yes35c83.57$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe563…0cf5backed Yes36c83.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xab41…c453backed Yes21c80.8$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.924537.8%17 W · 28 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c8a…398ebacked Yes30c80$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+29.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.