Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb6fd048741a8df9c90349f701a80a0a513951fdc6c1952082a3de596add8961
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 75c | 5,447$4,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,376.94 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 67c | 3,823$2,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,577.41 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 67c | 2,294$1,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,541.88 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 34c | 1,522$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.64 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…b79abacked Yes | 33c | 1,379$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.79 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 32c | 1,337$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.06 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 28c | 999.85$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.93 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 13c | 805.82$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.81 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Yes | 33c | 800.52$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.35 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 33c | 606.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.06 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Yes | 46c | 521.74$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.74 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 32c | 512$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.16 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 32c | 400$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc564…f892backed No | 69c | 386.37$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…7bbfbacked Yes | 32c | 381.15$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ed…42f5backed Yes | 32c | 359.38$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Yes | 31c | 353.86$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.16 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…1f27backed Yes | 36c | 330.14$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.44 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +35%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 31c | 304.78$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.37 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69dd…1964backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d55…1e94backed Yes | 33c | 300$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x347c…525abacked Yes | 46c | 296.26$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.98 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 31c | 285.97$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.52 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed No | 53c | 250$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed No | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Yes | 50c | 199.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.97 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…a1b0backed Yes | 49c | 197.96$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 22c | 177.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes | 40c | 150.16$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.16 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 55c | 147.83$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.88 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…380cbacked No | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…8f70backed Yes | 33c | 136.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.36 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Yes | 42c | 132$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.91 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked No | 39c | 128.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed No | 28c | 126.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4557…bf49backed Yes | 39c | 111$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 78c | 110.36$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d9…2f4abacked No | 69c | 108.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.77 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…0febbacked Yes | 32c | 107$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.76 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked No | 68c | 106$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.08 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3e…ef94backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 68c | 99.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…4432backed Yes | 32c | 90$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked No | 68c | 88.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.44 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 13c | 87.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed No | 42c | 64.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d97…7d3bbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…c966backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…9771backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8276…1204backed No | 68c | 55.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6271…4ac6backed Yes | 61c | 52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Yes | 60c | 47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283c…d7b1backed No | 42c | 46.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed No | 27c | 46.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x977d…9a58backed Yes | 34c | 40.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 30cpaid | +143%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d1…4216backed Yes | 33c | 37.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed No | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6798…dc93backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9c…6b57backed Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95a9…4352backed No | 67c | 27.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x048e…d8c9backed Yes | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…fd36backed Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb287…a6ebbacked Yes | 67c | 21.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Yes | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d0…899bbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 53cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x628e…1d80backed Yes | 61c | 18.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 70c | 16.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw?this page
- Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-01-23?No won
- Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-01-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.