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Bundesliga · resolved market

Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-01-23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$157,404
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$150,167

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $157,404 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4133…5e70backed No78c22,653$17,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,977.7275142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes22c18,279$4,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,026.563,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8790…010bbacked Yes36c15,000$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,399.737757.1%44 W · 33 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+38.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked No67c8,042$5,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,653.794854.2%26 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No66c6,619$4,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,263.1369851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2727…eef4backed Yes34c6,300$2,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1421216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-37.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x585c…f0a7backed Yes33c6,000$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9505923.7%14 W · 45 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick34cpaid+8.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Yes34c5,882$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0004963.3%31 W · 18 L+5.7wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4b9a…b04fbacked Yes32c5,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.991650%8 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38fe…a923backed No67c4,596$3,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,516.622759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed No68c4,524$3,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,465.124658.7%27 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes33c4,000$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3406144.3%27 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed Yes33c3,022$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.039831.6%31 W · 67 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed Yes35c3,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0509549.5%47 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked No68c2,862$1,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$915.991353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae17…b10dbacked Yes32c2,813$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No66c2,642$1,744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.031,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes33c2,533$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.1433945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed No66c2,222$1,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.4614447.9%69 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xaa98…b8f7backed Yes34c2,206$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe33c…2bd1backed Yes2c2,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x228c…0fb0backed Yes2c1,825$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+32.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6580…6fa8backed No68c1,565$1,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.82433.3%8 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Yes32c1,507$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.6811056.4%62 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c8…d8a4backed No67c1,498$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.362263.6%14 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No77c1,410$1,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.011,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf56a…fe7cbacked Yes32c1,170$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.561250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+45%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Yes32c1,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3209048.9%44 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe841…2edebacked Yes31c1,000$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60d1…4ebcbacked No67c999.95$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21e6…cbd8backed No69c626.2$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.12850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Yes34c588.24$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc57…f5f4backed No69c580.83$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.83850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x237e…a5f0backed Yes27c518.52$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1402227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed No66c513$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.4230054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35b9…1d44backed Yes32c500$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1605044%22 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Yes14c480.62$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.753140.7%216 W · 315 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Yes33c403$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.0220545.9%94 W · 111 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed No66c400$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13631145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Yes39c399.99$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15633340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd582…64bbbacked No66c379.43$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4504…a93fbacked Yes35c372.44$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40a1…d943backed Yes33c305.7$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.88616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-62.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x054b…afd5backed Yes33c303.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes32c300.07$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.429746.4%45 W · 52 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Yes26c296.9$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.43850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes32c295$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.455068%34 W · 16 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Yes14c274.62$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.463645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No79c241.52$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.3278248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8479…37f8backed Yes13c210$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3229.1%2 W · 20 L-4.3wins-0.19per pick28cpaid-69.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes32c200$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7116045%72 W · 88 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59c9…8cbabacked Yes26c191.11$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9346…ea03backed Yes28c189.37$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535246.2%24 W · 28 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No66c187.36$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.77722.1%17 W · 60 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Yes32c184.61$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0737344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No66c180.12$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.3356951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3334…a65dbacked Yes10c180$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x508c…2e81backed Yes13c180$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4985…28bdbacked Yes32c177$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Yes21c172.92$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0451136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Yes30c166.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.919451.1%48 W · 46 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8918…f4e4backed Yes33c151.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502317.4%4 W · 19 L-4.0wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-51.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfb6c…1bfabacked Yes33c151.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Yes32c150$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4813852.2%72 W · 66 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4865…904dbacked No67c146.16$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.234463.6%28 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Yes31c143$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.667759.7%46 W · 31 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed Yes19c131.58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2525352.2%132 W · 121 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8549…41f8backed Yes24c130$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.24037.5%15 W · 25 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes33c121.21$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402821.4%6 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-41.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf33…ab3ebacked Yes33c121.21$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404959.2%29 W · 20 L+4.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+15.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xacbc…e374backed No77c114.97$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.01862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf009…19e9backed Yes34c114.71$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3912538.4%48 W · 77 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed Yes32c113.41$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.298852.3%46 W · 42 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked Yes32c108.49$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1319446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6da…01cebacked No68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4557…bf49backed Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac98…7281backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128939.3%35 W · 54 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd969…342dbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed No68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3210454.8%57 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4daa…6920backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe361…bf48backed Yes24c95.83$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233033.3%10 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0028…fdc6backed Yes32c93.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa87b…968bbacked Yes13c93.44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127825.6%20 W · 58 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-25.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No67c90$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.76251.6%32 W · 30 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5eeb…01b2backed No75c88.81$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5614934.9%52 W · 97 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Yes24c83.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205955.9%33 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9c8…eb24backed Yes34c83.27$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes13c79.11$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6111644%51 W · 65 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Yes38c78.9$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9839558.7%232 W · 163 L+27.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9f01…672cbacked Yes33c75.76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f31…e308backed No67c74.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6fe…c8c2backed No68c73.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.532161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fb4…57acbacked Yes40c69.2$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.58250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e1c…a9a5backed No65c64.94$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.733455.9%19 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed No61c62.02$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2814756.5%83 W · 64 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa469…4985backed Yes33c60.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205248.1%25 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2810…a1a8backed Yes33c60.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207753.2%41 W · 36 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x19a0…ac39backed No60c59.18$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.67425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2dfd…920fbacked Yes34c58.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.