Premier League · resolved market
Will Arsenal win the 2025-2026 FA Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42b15a130a3faf475c6c23a8e451b6a03c742b7934c5b1c66c503c85b1b5c267
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 66c | 941.89$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.25 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1223…d424backed No | 69c | 718.93$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.41 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes | 37c | 556.87$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.52 | 187 | 48.1%90 W · 97 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 9c | 515$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb251…6f5bbacked Yes | 34c | 500$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 367.88$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.67 | 203 | 7.4%15 W · 188 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5175…1546backed Yes | 20c | 337.28$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 69c | 321.13$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.51 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3f…8e8dbacked Yes | 33c | 303.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x571b…cc6bbacked Yes | 30c | 280.15$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 68c | 232.5$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6988…9f4ebacked Yes | 37c | 219.64$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c08…5c69backed Yes | 33c | 189.67$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.71 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…cac9backed Yes | 39c | 161.87$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…4582backed Yes | 31c | 157.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Yes | 24c | 151.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x248a…0d55backed No | 68c | 148.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 30c | 141.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01fc…f431backed Yes | 37c | 135.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc6…4690backed Yes | 22c | 130$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 33c | 104$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 67c | 104$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe19e…adbfbacked Yes | 48c | 103.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4da0…0cd1backed Yes | 38c | 99.53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 24c | 93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb20f…5737backed Yes | 32c | 84.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd461…b2f7backed No | 77c | 82.1$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed No | 76c | 78.1$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…d4d7backed Yes | 37c | 74.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfec5…ae41backed No | 78c | 71.5$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa1…e207backed Yes | 29c | 70.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x103f…e1febacked Yes | 29c | 69.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…ec26backed Yes | 33c | 67.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 64c | 59.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeffd…5a86backed Yes | 23c | 55.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 64c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7858…a5eabacked No | 64c | 52.17$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 32c | 51.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…cf43backed Yes | 42c | 47.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 184 | 59.2%109 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 63c | 44.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…aa18backed Yes | 38c | 42.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 60c | 35.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…14eabacked No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked No | 67c | 23.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.36per pick | 42cpaid | +129.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 64c | 18.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 194 | 55.2%107 W · 87 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arsenal win the 2025-2026 FA Cup?this page
- Will Chelsea win the 2025-2026 FA Cup?No won
- Will Leeds United AFC win the 2025-2026 FA Cup?No won
- Will Liverpool win the 2025-2026 FA Cup?No won
- Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup?Yes won
- Will Port Vale win the 2025-2026 FA Cup?No won
- Will Southampton win the 2025-2026 FA Cup?No won
- Will West Ham United win the 2025-2026 FA Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.