World Politics · resolved market
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42f54363694f82ef6e4de7831203dfd4b1cbd84d6dfdb6fa43496d0437f96304
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $296,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $205,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $296,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f03…f3bbbacked Yes | 0c | 43,430$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…2606backed Yes | 0c | 13,638$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 1c | 10,514$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.99 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf72c…f818backed Yes | 2c | 5,349$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa466…f630backed Yes | 1c | 5,264$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ee…27cfbacked Yes | 2c | 4,326$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…8df9backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe12a…0c5cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,734$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…a8c8backed Yes | 1c | 3,216$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 1c | 3,054$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3f…d003backed Yes | 2c | 2,705$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…5c3ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,633$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 2,436$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,263$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46cb…1134backed Yes | 2c | 1,920$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…024abacked Yes | 4c | 1,788$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa776…6c3dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,713$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34e0…8369backed Yes | 2c | 1,682$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x552c…be63backed Yes | 1c | 1,659$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a8…3053backed Yes | 1c | 1,593$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd5…4ee6backed Yes | 1c | 1,525$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20a1…c4e7backed Yes | 1c | 1,518$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…a8a4backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 1,405$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…1833backed Yes | 1c | 1,386$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d6…58f0backed Yes | 1c | 1,342$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x031a…50b7backed Yes | 6c | 1,202$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,173$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cb…d3f8backed Yes | 2c | 1,112$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca4…c467backed Yes | 2c | 1,024$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 1c | 917$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a00…c859backed Yes | 2c | 800$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5707…da3bbacked Yes | 2c | 800$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 7c | 696.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 301.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 5c | 238.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?this page
- No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?No won
- Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.