South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-02-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x434d6388a1d137399fd4e548be3aba4ea0cf167aec3d9ba3455901a6c9fc5fd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 26c | 3,313$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.36 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 19c | 3,237$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.46 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 25c | 3,050$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.5 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 2,524$1,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.42 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 74c | 1,871$1,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.23 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 75c | 1,439$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.76 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 14c | 1,428$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 77c | 1,424$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.02 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 26c | 1,270$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.07 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed No | 73c | 933.99$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.84 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 75c | 838$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.5 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 78c | 770.68$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.95 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked No | 75c | 685$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 654.5$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.52 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 26c | 629.69$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.98 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…6941backed No | 78c | 614.73$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.09 | 144 | 43.1%62 W · 82 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 51c | 605.43$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.32 | 211 | 32.7%69 W · 142 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4913…d01bbacked No | 75c | 570.32$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 71cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa43…22f3backed Yes | 20c | 462.92$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…9762backed No | 44c | 387.25$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.15 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…a583backed Yes | 65c | 368.69$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.08 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 14c | 361.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd5…8afbbacked Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 75c | 281.41$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +18.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Yes | 18c | 252.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…5f1dbacked Yes | 20c | 249.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Yes | 18c | 240.45$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c14…ffa5backed Yes | 24c | 217.62$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 6c | 199.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fca…5f02backed Yes | 18c | 196.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 11c | 192.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 19c | 169.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 267 | 49.4%132 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…75c6backed Yes | 28c | 160.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…42f2backed No | 75c | 140$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Yes | 65c | 136$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 65 | 72.3%47 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff67…a1c9backed Yes | 20c | 125.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 27c | 121.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 402 | 42%169 W · 233 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1460…b5bbbacked Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5043…979ebacked Yes | 22c | 113.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Yes | 13c | 110.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf870…4edcbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a68…22dfbacked Yes | 28c | 103.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 64 | 15.6%10 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ec…6ce1backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 77c | 101.92$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dec…3302backed Yes | 24c | 95.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…20dfbacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 21c | 90.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b2…5f43backed Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 75c | 69.27$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd265…a7ecbacked Yes | 27c | 62.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Yes | 19c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 17c | 59.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…54f0backed Yes | 24c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb4…a01abacked Yes | 22c | 54.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 76c | 53.41$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yes | 24c | 50.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46af…1f6abacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…798cbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 76c | 40.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 270 | 53%143 W · 127 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 274 | 42%115 W · 159 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4469backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed No | 75c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 235 | 42.1%99 W · 136 L | -13.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 77c | 24.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f4…4effbacked No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 213 | 59.6%127 W · 86 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 127 | 41.7%53 W · 74 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked No | 77c | 13.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-02-25?this page
- Will Red Bull Bragantino vs. CA Paranaense end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-02-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.