NHL · resolved market
Predators vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43586540571c0b63cdb1e2cda20935b2fc5a68c933efc6e0a54eb0c737f6386d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,005 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Under | 10c | 670.06$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 358 | 29.3%105 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…572cbacked Under | 10c | 601.46$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.54 | 73 | 63%46 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 78c | 470.5$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.85 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f9a…3f4bbacked Under | 24c | 404.17$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cac…1695backed Under | 21c | 399.18$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.83 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 60c | 335.69$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Under | 18c | 315.84$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.55 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 76c | 304.17$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 16c | 222$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d75…bd1fbacked Under | 41c | 221.78$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc22…5738backed Under | 33c | 202.42$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 79c | 199$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 58c | 186.58$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.8 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 59c | 183.36$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.18 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 39c | 168.4$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.15 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Under | 34c | 141.62$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…1405backed Under | 50c | 95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Under | 36c | 89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 133 | 36.1%48 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdf…8116backed Over | 80c | 88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…b8e3backed Under | 39c | 70.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…f2efbacked Over | 57c | 70.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 65c | 69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93e3…e590backed Under | 33c | 53.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 73c | 53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 79c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfda1…454fbacked Under | 33c | 31.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Predators vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5this page
- Predators vs. SabresSabres won
- Predators vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Predators vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Predators vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Predators won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.