Serie A · resolved market
Will AS Roma vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x436f558ba5c08a8ae1fa3936fc56fff8324e54bb1708c6d16ecdfecce2673ae7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,437
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 17c | 11,323$1,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,975.24 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 75c | 4,356$3,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.17 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 12c | 1,524$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.1 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 25c | 866.57$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.73 | 356 | 46.6%166 W · 190 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 21c | 656.48$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.25 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b5…7ba6backed Yes | 31c | 654.89$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 30c | 612.97$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.89 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf515…0805backed Yes | 34c | 588.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0613…5204backed Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…d383backed Yes | 24c | 520.83$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0a…f786backed Yes | 34c | 517.65$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked No | 66c | 514.59$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.98 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f1…5840backed Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e5…092ebacked Yes | 23c | 479.3$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c9…b445backed Yes | 5c | 458.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…91aebacked Yes | 35c | 449.99$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd005…56a2backed Yes | 34c | 430$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 33c | 371$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.43 | 447 | 53.5%239 W · 208 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed No | 76c | 327.88$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.65 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 80c | 310$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 242 | 38.4%93 W · 149 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aef…9d05backed Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 25cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Yes | 16c | 234.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a96…e12fbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc23c…3993backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051c…f25dbacked Yes | 26c | 195$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x056a…611fbacked Yes | 34c | 152.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 68c | 147.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.16 | 153 | 57.5%88 W · 65 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…bdfbbacked Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda70…828bbacked Yes | 34c | 141.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4caf…6de9backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 63c | 127.76$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.27 | 136 | 39.7%54 W · 82 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9024…a444backed Yes | 18c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 267 | 44.6%119 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…2c1fbacked Yes | 26c | 112.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef4…a780backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…1d48backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…6092backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d3…4908backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x660c…0645backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 63c | 79.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee09…1199backed No | 67c | 64.63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 65 | 69.2%45 W · 20 L | +6.5wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…f95abacked Yes | 34c | 63.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Yes | 22c | 59.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3875…e1ebbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…e214backed No | 67c | 47.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c2…4074backed No | 68c | 47.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…378bbacked Yes | 27c | 41.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +34%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9419…a40fbacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 60cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07e7…a343backed No | 67c | 33.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…0e62backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59f1…6710backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f6…be2abacked No | 68c | 24.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedab…a41cbacked No | 67c | 15.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed No | 76c | 14.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AS Roma vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw?this page
- Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-30?No won
- Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.