Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x437792705905214ceef3b2d664cdce2281def699ce2d4797b48c53076b95f7cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 1,091$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.34 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 520.81$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 34c | 352.48$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.48 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb1…4897backed Yes | 79c | 277.59$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 34c | 277.36$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.55 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 246.92$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.38 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…467cbacked Yes | 73c | 214.99$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.61 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 24c | 145.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 32c | 136$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.48 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 136$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.28 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 69c | 127.64$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.07 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 30c | 118.42$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.56 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 31c | 116.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.56 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 22c | 111.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 35c | 104.91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.27 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 100.18$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.3 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed No | 31c | 98.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 27c | 90.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.04 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…3a8bbacked Yes | 44c | 84.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.51 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 79.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.42 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 73c | 76.03$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe04…a198backed Yes | 77c | 65.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 61.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 33c | 59.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 46.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 31c | 46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 33c | 43.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 27c | 42.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 33c | 41.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1486…cef3backed Yes | 76c | 39.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c6…2d29backed Yes | 76c | 39.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 36.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 65c | 36.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 55c | 35.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 41c | 34.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 59c | 34.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 58c | 33.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 52c | 31.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 34c | 31.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 68c | 29.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 66c | 28.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27d4…eb68backed Yes | 71c | 28.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked No | 46c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6096…e6d9backed Yes | 76c | 26.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 54c | 26.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 56c | 26.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 59c | 25.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 64c | 24.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 53c | 23.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 48c | 21.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e1…2f5fbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed No | 70c | 19.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 63c | 19.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcecc…1568backed Yes | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf569…a8bbbacked Yes | 70c | 15.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.