Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82ac0c9738ee99c1f4ee8fcb619279cc238e288cc9255945a50041d33450a826
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,269
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,269 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 7c | 558.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 27c | 351.19$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.59 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 232.86$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.25 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 204.16$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.53 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 33c | 135.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…e5c9backed Yes | 24c | 109.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 65c | 89$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 50c | 79.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadda…684cbacked No | 80c | 74.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 85 | 80%68 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 62.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 68c | 60.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 29c | 55.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 33c | 55.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5c…cda7backed Yes | 25c | 54.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 67c | 53.17$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 20c | 51.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 20c | 49.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 40.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 35c | 40.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked Yes | 33c | 39.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 36.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 66c | 35.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 33.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 80c | 33.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 54c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 30.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 35c | 28.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 75c | 28.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 65c | 23.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 22.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 22.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 21.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13b9…1ac3backed No | 75c | 17.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed No | 75c | 16.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 75c | 13.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.