Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43b435470db5006f082bd193c102d063b2f09fcd17c1dfee229d0429ce7cad57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 1,164$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.26 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 808.6$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 2c | 553.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 3c | 521.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 3c | 517.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 36c | 425.47$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.2 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 4c | 363.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 307$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.09 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 41c | 299.89$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.37 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 13c | 289.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 78c | 273.13$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.91 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5356…6f2cbacked Yes | 39c | 269.37$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.96 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.43per pick | 37cpaid | +153.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 21c | 259$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.52 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 37c | 248.5$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.07 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 29c | 235$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.61 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 36c | 207.25$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.26 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 66c | 180$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 29c | 163.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 56c | 156.93$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.81 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 150.5$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.57 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 114.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.9 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 33c | 107.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 38c | 102.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.33 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.81 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked No | 15c | 99.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22b4…5025backed No | 59c | 96.05$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 94.25$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 91.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 35c | 87.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.31 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 35c | 86.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 36c | 80.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.64 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 80.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.02 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.83 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 37c | 75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 38c | 69.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 35c | 55.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e8…94f5backed Yes | 36c | 54.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 37c | 53.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3a…3bb3backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 64c | 49.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 63c | 48.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 34c | 48.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 45.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 49c | 42.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 38c | 41.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 41c | 40.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2c…0854backed No | 66c | 39.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 29c | 37.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 33c | 35.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 34c | 35.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…4fbfbacked Yes | 34c | 34.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 36c | 32.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 39c | 31.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 35c | 31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd52…6c56backed Yes | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 27.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 71c | 26.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 65c | 25.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 64c | 20.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 65c | 20.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 64c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 66c | 15.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 66c | 15.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.