Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87f42f726963ee5a9ca8b2342a5f4b923670f2f16009de24abc17de964aee7d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5169…0455backed Yes | 44c | 1,669$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 459.42$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.01 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 99 | 9.1%9 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 58c | 390.12$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.1 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…6d71backed No | 72c | 377.04$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.04 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 353.93$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.75 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 36c | 347.64$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.66 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 342.53$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.41 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 45c | 246.5$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.5 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 51c | 243.66$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.35 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 47c | 209$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.23 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 48c | 200$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 49c | 191.32$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.09 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 51c | 177.09$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.39 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 39c | 171.78$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.57 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 59c | 169.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.51 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 28c | 165.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 53c | 150.5$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.16 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 56c | 140.71$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.91 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 60c | 138$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 57c | 136$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.48 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 54c | 128.15$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.23 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 122.82$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.52 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 121$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 37c | 116.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 53c | 102.6$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.46 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 100.11$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 43c | 95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.14 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 71c | 88.14$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 72c | 85$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 59c | 84.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 42c | 81.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 45c | 79.87$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 79.08$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 37c | 75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 45c | 74.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 73.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 71.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 46c | 70.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 69.96$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 72c | 67.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 53c | 62.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa48c…5506backed Yes | 42c | 60.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -6.7wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -57%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 41c | 58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 57c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…2ec5backed Yes | 51c | 54.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4df…b0d4backed Yes | 56c | 53.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 58c | 51.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 49.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 56c | 47.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 42c | 47.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 51c | 45.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 32c | 45.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 55c | 44.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 54c | 39.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 57c | 39.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 44c | 38.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 42c | 36.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…4fbfbacked Yes | 43c | 34.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…dbffbacked Yes | 46c | 32.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 41c | 31.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 45c | 31.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd52…6c56backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 28.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 27.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 26.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 55c | 24.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 74c | 23.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 72c | 22.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 54c | 20.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked No | 53c | 19.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 61c | 18.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 58c | 17.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.