TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Ryo Tabataof Yanki Erel, Ryo Tabata
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$39,029
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,515

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,029 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8d99…9675backed Ryo Tabata26c3,751$973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,778.2715530.3%47 W · 108 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Ryo Tabata47c2,503$1,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,326.4852152.2%272 W · 249 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Ryo Tabata29c2,136$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,515.423,87135%1,353 W · 2,518 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Ryo Tabata29c2,070$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,473.581,47535.2%519 W · 956 L-14.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Ryo Tabata29c1,959$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,390.94,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x94d4…d869backed Ryo Tabata18c1,719$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,401.7310246.1%47 W · 55 L+10.3wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+51.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Yanki Erel73c1,687$1,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,231.789,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yanki Erel54c1,628$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$876.4211,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Ryo Tabata30c1,391$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$978.022,28152%1,187 W · 1,094 L+82.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked Ryo Tabata33c1,000$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.642,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yanki Erel71c921.33$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.818,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Yanki Erel73c685.76$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.991,12551.1%575 W · 550 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Yanki Erel68c550.84$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.195,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Yanki Erel73c500$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3654,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88aa…2f5ebacked Yanki Erel73c444.38$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.43354.5%18 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Ryo Tabata50c401.92$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.964,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yanki Erel60c342.01$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.266,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yanki Erel65c287.5$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.878,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Ryo Tabata15c286.56$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.424,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82b0…7c38backed Yanki Erel38c275.05$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.5235955.7%200 W · 159 L+20.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed Yanki Erel73c267.56$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.321,02157.8%590 W · 431 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Yanki Erel74c266.66$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.331,45854%787 W · 671 L-33.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0dc…0030backed Ryo Tabata19c257.21$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.34742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid+19.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Ryo Tabata28c250$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18019411.9%23 W · 171 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Ryo Tabata32c240$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.258048.4%281 W · 299 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Ryo Tabata26c228.74$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.277,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Yanki Erel71c224.75$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.56,44946.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L-42.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd546…657bbacked Ryo Tabata25c207.17$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.5219410.3%20 W · 174 L+0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Ryo Tabata34c205.88$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.881,14247.3%540 W · 602 L+65.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a34…51fabacked Ryo Tabata26c203.85$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.8522020%44 W · 176 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Ryo Tabata25c192.37$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.282,46238.5%948 W · 1,514 L+93.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec11…953fbacked Ryo Tabata28c176.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.1513648.5%66 W · 70 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x365f…706abacked Yanki Erel48c175$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.161,79546.6%837 W · 958 L+20.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Ryo Tabata29c171.32$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.471,01039.2%396 W · 614 L-23.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Ryo Tabata46c168.93$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.913,67754.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L+107.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e38…1b52backed Ryo Tabata30c160$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11261924.4%151 W · 468 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe134…f6dabacked Yanki Erel67c153.18$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.1723954.8%131 W · 108 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Yanki Erel59c153.05$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.281,65550.1%829 W · 826 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe24e…eecebacked Yanki Erel68c147.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10087854.7%480 W · 398 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Yanki Erel68c140.32$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.823,06857.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L+173.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f2e…7c7bbacked Yanki Erel72c130.88$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.691,06557.4%611 W · 454 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Yanki Erel75c127$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.253,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Ryo Tabata31c127$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.634,60248.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L+34.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Yanki Erel59c124.8$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.631,42155%782 W · 639 L+23.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Ryo Tabata29c124.14$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.143,22040.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L+28.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Ryo Tabata29c124.14$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.143,42439.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L-12.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6770…5bdfbacked Ryo Tabata31c119.18$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.6296945.9%445 W · 524 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaffe…7140backed Ryo Tabata25c116$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8743242.4%183 W · 249 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7faf…e2b5backed Ryo Tabata27c113.38$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.7320552.7%108 W · 97 L-0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Ryo Tabata29c103.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.452,15137.3%802 W · 1,349 L-27.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e5f…6ee5backed Yanki Erel72c102.62$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.897040%28 W · 42 L-8.7wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-17.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Yanki Erel36c100.89$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.535,41648.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L+14.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Yanki Erel38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382,60146.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L+18.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd68e…8048backed Yanki Erel73c100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7341272.8%300 W · 112 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3603…22edbacked Ryo Tabata16c100$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8426345.6%120 W · 143 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Ryo Tabata35c96.57$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.131,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Yanki Erel35c95.48$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.696,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9271…a28abacked Ryo Tabata25c92.56$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.4255241.3%228 W · 324 L-2.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Yanki Erel41c92.27$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.271,22823.1%284 W · 944 L-164.0wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-47%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Yanki Erel71c90.52$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.278,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Ryo Tabata47c90.5$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.661,62652.7%857 W · 769 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f1d…2fb6backed Ryo Tabata29c90$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.91,55642.4%660 W · 896 L+20.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd96…11a3backed Yanki Erel69c89.52$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622,27458%1,318 W · 956 L-10.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Yanki Erel65c89.23$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5816050.6%81 W · 79 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3eb3…4d75backed Yanki Erel67c86.13$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585653.6%30 W · 26 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b2a…0a73backed Ryo Tabata25c80$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6094058.4%549 W · 391 L+21.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8741…5b0abacked Ryo Tabata41c80$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.54351.2%22 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x272d…bc2fbacked Yanki Erel38c78.3$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7536657.7%211 W · 155 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cde…96e2backed Yanki Erel72c76.95$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.44757.4%27 W · 20 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e69…553abacked Yanki Erel68c73.53$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5092355.8%515 W · 408 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9714…5152backed Ryo Tabata28c67$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.2415839.9%63 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9af…359cbacked Ryo Tabata77c63.26$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8651457.2%294 W · 220 L+29.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x74f9…6024backed Yanki Erel63c60$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5856153.7%301 W · 260 L+19.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Yanki Erel62c58$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.91,34949.8%672 W · 677 L-6.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1d08…6e9bbacked Ryo Tabata26c57.31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.3128249.3%139 W · 143 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Yanki Erel71c57.1$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.827,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbe4…f12fbacked Yanki Erel68c53.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7158665.5%384 W · 202 L+18.2wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10ac…0e0bbacked Ryo Tabata48c50.85$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.444744.7%21 W · 26 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc3b…d591backed Yanki Erel53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.519745.7%90 W · 107 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90e0…ff4cbacked Yanki Erel71c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5839851%203 W · 195 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Yanki Erel45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.671,35443.9%595 W · 759 L-62.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x82aa…fe2fbacked Ryo Tabata31c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.562727.3%171 W · 456 L-15.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4aac…72aabacked Yanki Erel23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Yanki Erel71c48.65$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.547,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Ryo Tabata30c47.19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.151,23446.3%571 W · 663 L+8.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Ryo Tabata29c47.18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.516,43954.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L+285.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9663…5b70backed Ryo Tabata25c41$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7585748.2%413 W · 444 L+33.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b56…a082backed Yanki Erel71c40$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.542563.3%269 W · 156 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f3d…95b1backed Ryo Tabata25c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3022235.1%78 W · 144 L+1.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabbc…04a3backed Ryo Tabata43c39$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2318957.7%109 W · 80 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8649…ba57backed Ryo Tabata50c36$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1879646%366 W · 430 L+1.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Yanki Erel49c35.83$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.711,02843.3%445 W · 583 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9c9…6686backed Yanki Erel73c35.61$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.131,33746%615 W · 722 L+23.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Ryo Tabata45c35$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.251,06242%446 W · 616 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ef1…5acabacked Yanki Erel73c35$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.551,79460.2%1,080 W · 714 L+6.8wins0.00per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc846…c413backed Yanki Erel68c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.455748.8%272 W · 285 L+23.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Yanki Erel73c27.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.841,76752.1%920 W · 847 L-2.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Yanki Erel73c24$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.521,72552.2%901 W · 824 L-8.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf051…900ebacked Yanki Erel64c23.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.110368.9%71 W · 32 L+8.9wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+12.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.