Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43cf2a975ceb452caa3d0171ee477788a26a4098ee6db5f285de726b91c25b6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 1c | 1,643$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d4…028ebacked Yes | 5c | 684.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 14c | 422.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7968…615abacked No | 75c | 372.66$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.72 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…079bbacked No | 62c | 324.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.88 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 28c | 296.44$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.83 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed Yes | 20c | 294.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -11.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 254.6$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.7 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 15c | 239.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7f…cc08backed Yes | 35c | 226.51$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 14c | 207$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 13c | 183.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 166.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes | 36c | 162.01$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.65 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 11c | 158.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb311…eadfbacked No | 68c | 147.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 8c | 140.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 75c | 132.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 35c | 122$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 38c | 120.32$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 19c | 118$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ad…c303backed No | 78c | 114.5$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 37c | 109.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 25c | 107.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 100.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked No | 71c | 99.96$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 99.96$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 16c | 98.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3822…e667backed Yes | 12c | 97.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 14c | 97.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 17c | 97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 15c | 91.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 91.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 67c | 88.2$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 34c | 86.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 21c | 83.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 16c | 74.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 75c | 72.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 69.13$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 28c | 66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 71c | 64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed No | 67c | 55.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 55.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a27…51ffbacked Yes | 36c | 50.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b52…589abacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -4.6wins | -0.38per pick | 47cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 49.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 66c | 43.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 41.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 32c | 40.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 73c | 35.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 32.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 31.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 38c | 30.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 35c | 30.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 67c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…0cf2backed No | 76c | 27.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 25.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 77c | 21.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 65c | 21.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 65c | 20.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 70c | 20.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe559…1300backed No | 63c | 15.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.