Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbeedf38fca87dca94e18a85467a7a0007ec4b185c99b9f316584751b441f3c2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 29c | 1,133$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 5c | 663.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 9c | 435.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 21c | 420.25$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.51 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781d…201bbacked Yes | 47c | 394.48$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 10c | 358.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 78c | 319.85$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.85 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 78c | 318.05$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.27 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 79c | 314.24$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.14 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 16c | 290.68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 12c | 282.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 254.6$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.37 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 79c | 228.38$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 66c | 228.26$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.49 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 60c | 206.75$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.09 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 73c | 204.61$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.61 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 77c | 203.03$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 32c | 200.36$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.7 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 198.76$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.06 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 191.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.06 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…e3f0backed Yes | 28c | 189.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.88 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 16c | 176.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 15c | 173.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 32c | 168.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 168.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 32c | 162.28$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…234ebacked Yes | 13c | 160$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 33c | 154.49$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 27c | 154.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 15c | 149.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 19c | 146.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 26c | 141.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 44c | 137.93$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.21 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…bc41backed No | 66c | 134.3$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.13 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x328c…8fabbacked No | 59c | 134.26$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.26 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 9c | 133$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 8c | 130.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 24c | 127.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…51bfbacked Yes | 55c | 126.84$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.71 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 35c | 126.22$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 20c | 123.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 10c | 121.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 120.07$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.19 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 16c | 119.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe03c…c61bbacked No | 75c | 105.36$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa17e…cfcdbacked Yes | 30c | 103.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 23c | 102.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 26c | 101.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e2…bfb6backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed Yes | 21c | 98.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 52c | 95.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 30c | 94.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 75c | 92.84$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 76c | 92.44$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…7421backed No | 63c | 89.02$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…0cf2backed Yes | 27c | 82.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked Yes | 27c | 77.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 54c | 76.08$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 45c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 33c | 66.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 65.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 32c | 64.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 40c | 63.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…53d0backed No | 38c | 63.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 30c | 63.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 24c | 53.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 38c | 52.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 29c | 50.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 27c | 50.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 41c | 47.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4624…d4bfbacked No | 62c | 45.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 52c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24b5…d8dbbacked Yes | 36c | 43.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed Yes | 28c | 41.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x589b…0381backed Yes | 31c | 41.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 39.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…31a0backed Yes | 33c | 37.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 30c | 36.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…90edbacked Yes | 35c | 35.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed No | 68c | 31.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…123abacked No | 76c | 28.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86f7…1f0abacked No | 62c | 28.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 79c | 27.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 75c | 26.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed No | 79c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 69c | 25.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 79c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a0…b7a2backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 62c | 24.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf651…86b1backed Yes | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x827d…b1f0backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed No | 79c | 15.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.