Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad8f4765cddbb965b56526e59a8550397ecfa02944b625de4af69b35cb9c735b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x22ea…e40dbacked No | 67c | 888.54$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.76 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 29c | 377$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.56 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 15c | 363.12$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.88 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 57c | 361.77$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.23 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 67c | 331.37$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.8 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 34c | 328.8$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.92 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 19c | 318.37$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.05 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781d…201bbacked Yes | 55c | 313.94$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 52c | 275.38$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.79 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 254.6$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.77 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f7…1f0abacked Yes | 63c | 234.43$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.99 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a0…b7a2backed No | 46c | 216.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 214.06$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 212.9$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 45c | 210.12$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.49 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 6c | 209.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 73c | 208.66$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.61 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 53c | 206.73$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.23 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe09b…0a70backed No | 63c | 203.23$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 65c | 200$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.19 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7968…615abacked No | 75c | 200$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.91 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed No | 27c | 187.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -11.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 50c | 183.56$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.75 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 166.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.63 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 17c | 164$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 161.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…882ebacked No | 67c | 157.19$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 39c | 145.14$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.45 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 63c | 137.05$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.09 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 39c | 136.32$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.82 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 74c | 129$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 64c | 122$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.61 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 32c | 122$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.96 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.21 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 18c | 119.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 61c | 102.94$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa17e…cfcdbacked Yes | 50c | 102.56$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a27…51ffbacked Yes | 38c | 99.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.99 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 35c | 97.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 94.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes | 33c | 90.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.92 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 29c | 86.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.69 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 33c | 84.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.19 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…7b51backed No | 63c | 83.56$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 36c | 83.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.41 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 74c | 80.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 61c | 80.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 47c | 76.89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 39c | 70.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 65.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.59 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 33c | 64.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 34c | 62.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda89…6215backed Yes | 36c | 60.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 21c | 59.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 40c | 59.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 50c | 57.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 18c | 56.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 56.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 34c | 55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 43c | 54.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 71c | 52.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 36c | 51.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…0fc4backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 35c | 49.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…52adbacked Yes | 47c | 48.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 49c | 44.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 25c | 42.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…53d0backed No | 44c | 41.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 67c | 40.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9575backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 47c | 39.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 70c | 37.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 28c | 36.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 80c | 35.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 55c | 35.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 43c | 34.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 35c | 34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 73c | 31.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…1d7bbacked Yes | 74c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59b0…56e8backed Yes | 39c | 30.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98c…a75ebacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 79c | 29.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 45c | 27.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 79c | 26.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 79c | 26.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked Yes | 51c | 21.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 73c | 21.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 52c | 21.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 50c | 20.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.