Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43daf01a531bb58479f23f1b8eacb62abe37b0a6eabb56ac42ea2ebb3a021ddc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked No | 37c | 693.24$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.12 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 11c | 530.96$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.62 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 8c | 327.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 20c | 271.97$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.68 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 260.89$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c09…3f91backed Yes | 55c | 219.1$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 15c | 177.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 31c | 175.38$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.36 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 154.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 41c | 154.33$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.49 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 40c | 150.59$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.92 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 30c | 117.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 70c | 111.19$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 57c | 107.95$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.21 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 40c | 105.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 73c | 99.1$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 75c | 87.7$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 42c | 82.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 54c | 81.82$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 76c | 75.52$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 52c | 74.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 35c | 73.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…096fbacked No | 42c | 72.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 27c | 64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 49c | 57.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 45c | 56.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed Yes | 32c | 53.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 52.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb658…af47backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 45.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 47c | 45.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x666d…340bbacked Yes | 51c | 41.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 34c | 40.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe802…8191backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 74c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed Yes | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c7…45acbacked No | 57c | 38.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 64c | 36.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9948…5da1backed Yes | 59c | 34.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 59c | 33.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x561a…7be2backed Yes | 38c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae37…90f2backed Yes | 69c | 28.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 54c | 27.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 73c | 23.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…d40fbacked Yes | 67c | 21.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4fc6backed Yes | 73c | 20.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x446d…a0b2backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 66c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 79c | 17.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed Yes | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.