Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43eccfadecee5ba91616579f4d437cb422ab3fc30ebfa23067b43f357c977383
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x79e4…3eaebacked Yes | 0c | 7,093$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34c8…2249backed Yes | 0c | 6,022$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 8c | 416.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 227.16$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.78 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 185.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 158$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f8…c055backed Yes | 30c | 147.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 71c | 109.86$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 71c | 108.96$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 29c | 99.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 18c | 88.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked No | 73c | 82.03$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 74c | 77.44$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…4432backed Yes | 57c | 75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1906…c647backed No | 70c | 71.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c5…ed20backed Yes | 25c | 70.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 69.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 67.2$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 36c | 64.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 62.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 20c | 61.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 20c | 61.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…d28abacked Yes | 29c | 52.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 51.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f3…f487backed Yes | 30c | 49.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 71c | 49.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 46.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa434…cf75backed Yes | 27c | 44.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 74c | 39.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 30c | 38.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 36.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 71c | 35.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 70c | 34.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 33.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 31.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 70c | 31.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc239…ebe8backed No | 74c | 30.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…1af3backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4812…d2d6backed No | 76c | 28.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf6…1c1dbacked No | 73c | 23.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…a3ecbacked No | 67c | 23.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 72c | 22.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 72c | 20.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6716…6450backed No | 68c | 19.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 69c | 18.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 69c | 17.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 71c | 15.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 68c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 70c | 15.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C or higher on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.