Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc6104ba463dd18b91c7747601a796470506d3ab0da8c458f3638dde7f3b5ac0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed No | 70c | 414.83$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 350.35$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.19 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 64c | 337.85$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.22 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 78c | 251.75$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.06 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 42c | 238.39$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.15 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 51c | 169.4$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.91 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 22c | 166.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 74c | 166.17$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 20c | 159.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 30c | 147.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 46c | 146.71$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.61 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 14c | 146.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 43c | 131.3$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.68 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 76c | 131.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 127.13$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.26 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 29c | 123.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 65c | 122.66$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 69c | 113.7$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 30c | 111.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.43 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 29c | 107.04$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…9a18backed Yes | 30c | 103.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 94.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.77 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 60c | 93.84$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 39c | 82.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.33 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 23c | 81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 26c | 76.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 28c | 74.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 73.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.63 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21bd…ddc0backed Yes | 28c | 70.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 30c | 70.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 25c | 68.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 66.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 67c | 66.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 61c | 61.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 29c | 59.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 28c | 59.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 25c | 58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 62c | 55.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 34c | 54.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes | 36c | 53.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 56c | 52.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 59c | 42.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa434…cf75backed Yes | 29c | 41.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 67c | 38.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…2830backed Yes | 72c | 38.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 55c | 36.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 35.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…d211backed Yes | 53c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked Yes | 68c | 34.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ff…294abacked Yes | 33c | 33.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked No | 56c | 30.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…a3ecbacked Yes | 74c | 29.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 54c | 29.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 41c | 28.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 40c | 28.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 61c | 27.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 73c | 27.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…af38backed No | 71c | 27.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 60c | 24.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…182cbacked Yes | 76c | 21.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 78c | 19.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 69c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 78c | 18.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 16.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad1…e9acbacked No | 68c | 14.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 69c | 14.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C or higher on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.