Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will Paris FC win on 2026-01-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43efa06b3df75171ed654b78d45c7b38f30ebbb57e1cb23fbd601c4430681e06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $142,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $142,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2c8…5471backed Yes | 3c | 22,050$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.47 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 3c | 21,930$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.2 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 4c | 14,455$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.82 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 4c | 12,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 4c | 7,639$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.5 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 5c | 6,050$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.5 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 3c | 5,277$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.67 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 1c | 3,915$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 4c | 2,904$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.75 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…3c7abacked Yes | 3c | 2,427$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…76e9backed Yes | 2c | 1,505$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 4c | 1,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 173 | 29.5%51 W · 122 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…e6febacked Yes | 2c | 1,050$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad6b…ee40backed Yes | 4c | 1,035$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 4c | 1,028$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 231 | 51.5%119 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20e4…8e33backed Yes | 6c | 976.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Yes | 5c | 799.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…d052backed Yes | 3c | 731.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 4c | 724.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 4c | 642.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 520.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c22…70a0backed Yes | 4c | 511.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59b…6ea1backed Yes | 6c | 453.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa62d…92e0backed Yes | 4c | 375.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -52%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 4c | 364.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +6.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Yes | 6c | 340.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Yes | 4c | 312.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb4…f28cbacked Yes | 5c | 214$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 7cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 130 | 16.2%21 W · 109 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed Yes | 46c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Paris FC win on 2026-01-04?this page
- Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Paris FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.