MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x440711d07841883e7d763599d2e5c0e872b174e7a3922649880b16e71c1f5f94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 59c | 7,690$4,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,554.26 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 40c | 5,130$2,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,059.58 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 40c | 2,147$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,288.07 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 39c | 1,199$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.68 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 40c | 1,195$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.84 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 60c | 894.09$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.63 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 679.42$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.75 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 58c | 603$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.1 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f55…8956backed Over | 41c | 520.78$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.26 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 63c | 489.18$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.62 | 301 | 50.8%153 W · 148 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 56c | 462.94$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.08 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 62c | 405.45$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.43 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 42c | 312.83$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.96 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 33c | 295.96$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.26 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x461b…7360backed Under | 63c | 147.79$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.38 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 43c | 139.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 278 | 46.8%130 W · 148 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Under | 40c | 112.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 318 | 49.7%158 W · 160 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Over | 50c | 103.76$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.85 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +12.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…0ababacked Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 29c | 79.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…def7backed Over | 57c | 78.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 67c | 55.81$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Over | 59c | 51.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 61c | 50.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 39c | 49.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb817…bdc7backed Under | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e80…416dbacked Over | 39c | 33.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…1173backed Over | 41c | 30.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6a58backed Over | 58c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Over | 48c | 20.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.