MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ab94726aff68c917bff8c353b3aefd3984f8e2610ae80c949730b8fdd7626b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 59c | 13,999$8,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,209.46 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 48c | 11,110$5,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,810.53 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 52c | 10,141$5,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,285.99 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 41c | 5,989$2,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,523.55 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 53c | 5,330$2,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,824.78 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 4,511$1,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,552.55 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 53c | 3,747$1,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,986.13 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 36c | 3,449$1,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,213.94 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…7dd1backed Over | 49c | 3,150$1,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,606.5 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 52c | 2,850$1,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,482.16 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 2,500$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,324.99 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Over | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 1,773$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.97 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Over | 48c | 1,151$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.6 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc444…20dabacked Under | 77c | 1,100$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 51c | 962.5$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.87 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Over | 48c | 911.59$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.03 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 866.26$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.17 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b43…0714backed Over | 48c | 818.17$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.45 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 38c | 797.52$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.52 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1f…9136backed Under | 53c | 737.21$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.72 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 39c | 632.86$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.21 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba34…c745backed Over | 35c | 373.5$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.15 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 59c | 341.84$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.13 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 51c | 338.46$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.01 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 47c | 314.56$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.72 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Under | 52c | 310$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.2 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 22c | 299.95$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.96 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Over | 34c | 295.21$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.18 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…0b79backed Over | 48c | 270$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.4 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 47c | 268.74$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.43 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 38c | 234.77$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.92 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 47c | 215$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.95 | 1,445 | 50%723 W · 722 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab7…6978backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 154 | 42.2%65 W · 89 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Over | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 151 | 43.7%66 W · 85 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 98 | 42.9%42 W · 56 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 35c | 185.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.24 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 49c | 155.61$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.36 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 278 | 46.8%130 W · 148 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd6…3806backed Over | 40c | 102.1$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.83 | 177 | 52.5%93 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 51c | 79.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2385…9a13backed Over | 40c | 63.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 59c | 62.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 47c | 61.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…a74dbacked Under | 53c | 60.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 45c | 57.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 549 | 51.2%281 W · 268 L | +29.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 45c | 51.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca78…fe5dbacked Over | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 192 | 52.6%101 W · 91 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bf…8ec8backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 51c | 49.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 47c | 46.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 41c | 45.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 48c | 39.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 49c | 38.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 45c | 32.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 35c | 31.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb208…e0b2backed Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 56c | 24.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ce…41acbacked Under | 60c | 22.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…760ebacked Under | 59c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.