MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a35e3264eb20805520f60dccaddd3fef58e8cf7d284696c11157c3b258f014a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Tampa Bay Rays, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Boston Red Sox | 22c | 12,768$2,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,993.54 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -17.3wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tampa Bay Rays | 78c | 9,233$7,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,201.77 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 30c | 7,978$2,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,393.26 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +221.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 70c | 4,306$3,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,291.56 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 48c | 3,313$1,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,718.68 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 56c | 1,894$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.59 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Boston Red Sox | 75c | 929.4$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.17 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Tampa Bay Rays | 18c | 833$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 75c | 634.08$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.56 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Tampa Bay Rays | 25c | 524.93$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.71 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Boston Red Sox | 70c | 402$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.43 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Boston Red Sox | 71c | 346.92$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.63 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 77c | 335$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.95 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…5672backed Tampa Bay Rays | 30c | 302.6$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.78 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Tampa Bay Rays | 30c | 292$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 201 | 38.8%78 W · 123 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Boston Red Sox | 70c | 282.01$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.6 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Tampa Bay Rays | 27c | 212.48$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 203.44$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.24 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 121 | 38%46 W · 75 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Boston Red Sox | 21c | 169.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.29 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Tampa Bay Rays | 13c | 154.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 14c | 141.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Tampa Bay Rays | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…184cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 74c | 119.43$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.38 | 284 | 53.9%153 W · 131 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Boston Red Sox | 47c | 80.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 19c | 77.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +12.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 27c | 58.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 49c | 50.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x461b…7360backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfb…f1b7backed Boston Red Sox | 51c | 22.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 319 | 63%201 W · 118 L | +27.5wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Tampa Bay Rays | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2a…7682backed Tampa Bay Rays | 78c | 18.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Tampa Bay Rays | 78c | 13.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.