MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x320c30b063d286b61aef8b3c9e2739d04bbade3a0c265376708db4226e945e39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Tampa Bay Rays, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 75c | 9,019$6,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,244 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 21c | 8,826$1,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,855.38 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +221.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Tampa Bay Rays | 53c | 4,730$2,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,503.93 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Boston Red Sox | 46c | 4,429$2,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,398.81 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Boston Red Sox | 53c | 4,036$2,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,912.79 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 48c | 4,000$1,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,918.35 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 1,200$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 782.1$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.21 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Boston Red Sox | 57c | 713.59$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.85 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Boston Red Sox | 79c | 600.61$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.13 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Boston Red Sox | 57c | 500$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8aa…a3c7backed Boston Red Sox | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 318.81$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.9 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 299.95$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.43 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Tampa Bay Rays | 59c | 250$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 9c | 201.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +12.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 50c | 196.48$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.31 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Boston Red Sox | 42c | 195.05$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.52 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Boston Red Sox | 79c | 179.36$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Boston Red Sox | 55c | 137.69$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.96 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 133.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Boston Red Sox | 56c | 126.91$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 109.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.76 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 55c | 62.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 59.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 53.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 57c | 49.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 40.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 54c | 39.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 35.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 446 | 51.6%230 W · 216 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Boston Red Sox | 58c | 35.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Boston Red Sox | 52c | 30.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x773e…7502backed Boston Red Sox | 43c | 29.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 47c | 29.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Boston Red Sox | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd6…3806backed Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 24.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 177 | 52.5%93 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 51c | 21.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…b4b4backed Tampa Bay Rays | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e5…efbbbacked Boston Red Sox | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.