AI · resolved market
Will claude-opus-4-7-thinking be the top AI model on April 24, 2026 (Style Control On)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4450e282179e0c5bfa886412c6bc3571726b446690c954a6bc3398411ada1146
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf97…4653backed No | 41c | 4,368$1,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,782.82 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed No | 12c | 3,983$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.36 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…39d8backed No | 6c | 1,390$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 64c | 1,299$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.81 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 21c | 1,233$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.79 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 6c | 977.31$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.17 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc63…427abacked Yes | 48c | 764.65$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 50c | 685.29$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.07 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34d0…264ebacked No | 47c | 526.55$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.16 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 60c | 457.36$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.94 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…f878backed Yes | 58c | 338.24$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.92 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +4.9wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 70c | 336.67$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 20c | 318.96$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.07 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 14c | 159.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 27c | 150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb522…3ebbbacked Yes | 70c | 139.53$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.93 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed Yes | 75c | 130.27$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 38c | 117$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 60c | 96.8$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 60c | 96.8$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 27c | 85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.05 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -54%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked Yes | 65c | 65.92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 80c | 44.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c4…9c42backed Yes | 74c | 29.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 44c | 22.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will claude-opus-4-7-thinking be the top AI model on April 24, 2026 (Style Control On)?this page
- Will any other model be the top AI model on April 24, 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on April 24, 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.