AI · resolved market
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on April 24, 2026 (Style Control On)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb05ca5851144e67bb680955f597d7f634d12bf1e6272a38e5e7c7d1655853df0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,674
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,674 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed Yes | 10c | 4,920$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.08 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf97…4653backed Yes | 44c | 3,800$1,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,658.95 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 74c | 1,669$1,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.73 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…39d8backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 49c | 860.48$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.24 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 37c | 755.87$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c3…0172backed Yes | 8c | 722.45$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 51c | 568.51$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.24 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 514.26$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.3 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 78c | 322.61$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.94 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc63…427abacked No | 58c | 254.52$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked No | 57c | 226.15$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.24 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34d0…264ebacked Yes | 66c | 191.55$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 48c | 110.04$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.18 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…30d3backed Yes | 18c | 89.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 18c | 84.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -54%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 67c | 63.69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 54c | 56.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked No | 49c | 43.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23c4…9c42backed Yes | 36c | 31.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 78c | 23.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…33a1backed No | 69c | 22.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +247.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on April 24, 2026 (Style Control On)?this page
- Will any other model be the top AI model on April 24, 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will claude-opus-4-7-thinking be the top AI model on April 24, 2026 (Style Control On)?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.