MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x449957e5d0494d8784355f226c093d265b6536acc85629f8455db503d27876cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Minnesota Twins, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Minnesota Twins | 33c | 1,660$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.43 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0be…540abacked Atlanta Braves | 67c | 1,651$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.89 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves | 51c | 1,317$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.88 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Minnesota Twins | 37c | 979.62$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.21 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves | 66c | 867.54$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.36 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Minnesota Twins | 50c | 511.48$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.11 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…54a7backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 476.56$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.56 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Minnesota Twins | 39c | 449$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.64 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Minnesota Twins | 51c | 259.21$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.19 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Twins | 29c | 202.27$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Atlanta Braves | 42c | 179$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.82 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Atlanta Braves | 57c | 106$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.83 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Atlanta Braves | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Atlanta Braves | 66c | 83.6$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Atlanta Braves | 73c | 77$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Minnesota Twins | 32c | 67.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x186b…9bbabacked Atlanta Braves | 59c | 63.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Minnesota Twins | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Atlanta Braves | 65c | 44.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Atlanta Braves | 55c | 40.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1217…7cf5backed Minnesota Twins | 50c | 29.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Minnesota Twins | 39c | 25.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 23.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Minnesota Twins | 70c | 21.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 12.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.