MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x045c4c2365425d79d5716e7d7f54422821cc770336c7ab2d1b7d14fc75c6aa1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66b2…0fdfbacked No | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 54c | 1,185$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.26 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 52c | 931.05$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.38 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 55c | 909$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.05 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 48c | 779.19$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.11 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed No | 45c | 511.4$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.13 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked No | 45c | 350$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 577 | 53.2%307 W · 270 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 45c | 280$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 51c | 244.99$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.05 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…0f82backed No | 49c | 201.19$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.04 | 151 | 43%65 W · 86 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.04 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 48c | 156$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.51 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Yes | 36c | 124.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.73 | 476 | 46.8%223 W · 253 L | +27.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed No | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Yes | 36c | 69.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.37 | 800 | 52%416 W · 384 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked Yes | 55c | 60.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Yes | 55c | 56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 1,306 | 50.7%662 W · 644 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d08…9e8dbacked Yes | 52c | 56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed No | 45c | 46.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 792 | 47.5%376 W · 416 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3093…7bcbbacked Yes | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 48c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd46…37cfbacked No | 46c | 43.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked No | 46c | 41.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 263 | 15.6%41 W · 222 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f87…e128backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 52c | 33.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd12…4fb7backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 48cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…3776backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 770 | 52.1%401 W · 369 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twinsthis page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 12.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.