MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59171ac1f08fdcd473bfb2adfa0370f6948133d7c088ca3286ccada7f70d83f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Minnesota Twins, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,699
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 2,393$1,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.1 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd3…8289backed Atlanta Braves | 42c | 2,381$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins | 72c | 1,810$1,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.26 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9905…add3backed Atlanta Braves | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Atlanta Braves | 25c | 799$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.73 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Minnesota Twins | 49c | 765.39$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.35 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves | 22c | 502.32$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.9 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta Braves | 29c | 422$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.38 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Twins | 47c | 282.98$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.64 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Atlanta Braves | 27c | 256.09$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.42 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Minnesota Twins | 72c | 240$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.1 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Atlanta Braves | 44c | 217$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.42 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…697dbacked Atlanta Braves | 71c | 211.27$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Minnesota Twins | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Atlanta Braves | 18c | 190$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Minnesota Twins | 29c | 189.68$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.67 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Atlanta Braves | 54c | 133.55$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.12 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Minnesota Twins | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Atlanta Braves | 34c | 90$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06fa…d071backed Atlanta Braves | 30c | 58.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Minnesota Twins | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 47.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Minnesota Twins | 31c | 37.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Minnesota Twins | 72c | 35.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Minnesota Twins | 76c | 34.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Minnesota Twins | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 12.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.