MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e911e62159178ca15b2b1b20563b7fd36ce6826928cb737d9bbedccdb8dadfc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,606
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 39c | 4,405$1,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,733.77 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x189c…c9aebacked Under | 56c | 1,500$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 60c | 1,416$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.48 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…7f85backed Under | 72c | 1,399$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.38 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 24c | 994.14$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.43 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 60c | 990$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 65c | 399$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.65 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 21c | 358.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.26 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Under | 61c | 289.91$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.91 | 151 | 53%80 W · 71 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 40c | 175$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 61c | 157.39$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 39c | 157$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.23 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 60c | 141.04$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.82 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Under | 61c | 124.98$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.74 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 32c | 124$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 36c | 116.03$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…2888backed Under | 80c | 111.2$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 129 | 24.8%32 W · 97 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 33c | 109$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Under | 65c | 84.62$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…b5afbacked Over | 35c | 84.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 39c | 77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 38c | 75.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 62c | 71$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 38c | 59.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 36c | 57.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Under | 61c | 53.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Over | 40c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed Over | 43c | 48.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 38c | 47.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 30c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 55c | 35.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 35c | 34.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Under | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed Under | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Under | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 39c | 27.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 42c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Over | 40c | 25.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 60c | 25.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4c…b93bbacked Under | 56c | 19.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 12.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.