MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab37353e75581b57a7d7daba53b3f3c2f48d1242b0f75f89576ccd3e9b4f46f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Atlanta Braves, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,015
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 24,487$14,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,284.49 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974c…3269backed Atlanta Braves | 42c | 22,353$9,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,388.46 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…2e6dbacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 6,406$3,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,626.29 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves | 41c | 2,368$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.7 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Atlanta Braves | 42c | 1,650$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.82 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 1,222$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 1,065$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.7 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc91d…6416backed Atlanta Braves | 11c | 921.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Atlanta Braves | 42c | 902.4$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.92 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea53…e1ebbacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 271.19$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.19 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Atlanta Braves | 42c | 256.07$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.55 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 228.65$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.75 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…2504backed Atlanta Braves | 43c | 227.28$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.73 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Atlanta Braves | 41c | 221.09$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.81 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 198.06$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.21 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 194$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.54 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Atlanta Braves | 43c | 187$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.41 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Atlanta Braves | 41c | 138$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 134.17$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Atlanta Braves | 43c | 120$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Minnesota Twins | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Atlanta Braves | 42c | 93.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed Atlanta Braves | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Atlanta Braves | 42c | 71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…5ac0backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 48.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 360 | 50.3%181 W · 179 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69fa…e259backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 47.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 47.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Atlanta Braves | 42c | 45.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ef…34cabacked Minnesota Twins | 58c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf7…c485backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 37.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Atlanta Braves | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…fd3cbacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 26.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Atlanta Braves | 42c | 25.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…8a52backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 22.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 17.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 12.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.