MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64642a9b8441919e0d54973a0d5a0338d7d7b5dd5483e4656ddb580f01d73fa7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 50c | 12,086$6,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,042.8 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 9,379$4,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,703.28 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 55c | 2,916$1,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,616.79 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189c…c9aebacked Under | 48c | 2,642$1,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,372.45 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 33c | 1,475$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.16 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 21c | 1,243$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.44 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Under | 45c | 1,213$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.15 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 533.84$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.34 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 532.42$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.6 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 48c | 505$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.6 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 36c | 383.95$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.04 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 51c | 379.88$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.14 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 58c | 366.81$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.75 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 42c | 288.31$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.22 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 44c | 275.34$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.02 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 28c | 264.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.42 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 56c | 207.57$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.59 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5145…dd71backed Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 52c | 182.11$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.22 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…9a6ebacked Over | 54c | 180.2$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.06 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 51c | 170$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.3 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Under | 42c | 133$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 736 | 53%390 W · 346 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Under | 47c | 129.5$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.86 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…c511backed Over | 58c | 120.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 41c | 118.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.14 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 41c | 113.39$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.9 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 53c | 105.83$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.47 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…6b58backed Under | 57c | 104.4$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 45c | 103.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.86 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1d…a01abacked Over | 59c | 103.39$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 46c | 96.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.54 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 52c | 96.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58ad…be98backed Over | 58c | 90.52$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eeb…a72cbacked Over | 50c | 86.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 42c | 81.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 55c | 81.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 58c | 81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06fa…d071backed Under | 25c | 80.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 43c | 79.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Under | 48c | 68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 51c | 62.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…226cbacked Under | 32c | 62.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…b2cebacked Under | 40c | 50.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 48c | 49.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2458…bd24backed Over | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cd…3897backed Under | 52c | 46.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 42c | 44.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Under | 42c | 44.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 50c | 42.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 61c | 41.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Under | 47c | 37.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Under | 44c | 33.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Over | 55c | 31.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 54c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 26.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 57c | 20.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4c…b93bbacked Over | 59c | 19.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed Over | 54c | 18.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 57c | 18.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 12.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.